As the College Football Playoff Committee prepares to unveil its penultimate rankings tonight, the tension across the sport is palpable. With more contenders than spots and razor-thin margins separating them, this year’s playoff picture is anything but clear.
Last season, the committee had a relatively easy job. The Big Ten put four teams in-Oregon, Ohio State, Indiana, and Penn State.
Oregon went undefeated and took home the conference title, while two-loss Ohio State and Penn State joined them, along with 11-1 Indiana. No real controversy there.
The SEC sent three: Georgia, the 11-2 conference champ, along with 10-2 Texas and 10-2 Tennessee. Alabama and South Carolina, both 9-3, were left on the outside looking in. Miami, despite a 10-2 finish in the ACC, also didn’t make the cut.
This year? A whole different ballgame.
The committee is staring down a logjam of 10-2 and 9-3 teams, all with compelling cases, and only a few precious spots left. One of the most heated debates centers around Notre Dame and Miami-both sitting at 10-2.
Miami beat the Irish in Week 1, but stumbled twice in ACC play. Notre Dame dropped their first two games-against Miami and Texas A&M-but haven’t lost since.
They’ve been climbing steadily.
In last week’s rankings, Notre Dame sat at No. 9, Miami at No.
- If the season ended then, the Irish would be in.
But should head-to-head matter more? If Miami beat Notre Dame on the field, shouldn’t that give them the edge now?
If the committee’s going to make a move, this would be the week to do it.
Then there’s Alabama. The Crimson Tide are playing in the SEC Championship and seem like a playoff lock.
Oklahoma, also 10-2 and ranked No. 8 last week, helped their case by knocking off LSU. They’re trending in the right direction.
Vanderbilt is another name to watch. They were No. 14 last week and just picked up a statement win on the road at Tennessee. At 10-2, they’re lurking, hoping for chaos to open a door.
BYU is 11-1 and heading into the Big 12 Championship. If they win, they punch their ticket as a conference champion and automatic qualifier.
But if they lose? Things get murky fast.
A close loss might not be enough to hold off other two-loss teams.
Utah, at 10-2 and ranked 13th last week, is also in the mix-though their path is less clear. Without a marquee win or a conference title shot, their résumé may not stack up against the rest.
And then there’s Texas. At 9-3, they’re likely on the outside, but they’ve got three wins that jump off the page-Oklahoma, Vanderbilt, and most recently, an upset of previously unbeaten Texas A&M.
That’s a résumé that would have looked playoff-worthy if not for a road loss to a struggling Florida team. Some argue they’re being punished for scheduling tough early-losing to Ohio State in Week 1-when an easier opponent might have padded their record instead.
Tonight’s rankings won’t settle everything, but they’ll give us a clear look at how the committee is thinking heading into Selection Sunday. With so many teams clustered together and only 12 playoff spots to go around, someone’s going to feel snubbed. That’s the tradeoff with college football’s high-stakes regular season: every game matters, but not every worthy team can survive the gauntlet.
The committee has its work cut out for it. There are more deserving teams than seats at the table. And that makes this final stretch of the season as dramatic-and as consequential-as it gets.