Miami’s hold on the AP top spot is already feeling shaky, even with the Hurricanes sitting No. 1 right now.
The 2026 college football season has been churning out more turnover near the top than usual, with four different teams already spending time at No. 1. That matches the most since 2010, and it feeds into the bigger theme emerging so far: there’s more balance across the sport than fans are used to seeing.
With the calendar nearing the end of October, the College Football Playoff picture is coming into focus, and the current projection has Miami leading the charge but not necessarily locked into the top seed. The Hurricanes’ historic offense has them on pace to run the table, and they’re expected to beat Notre Dame in two weeks, but the selection committee may still favor the SEC champion if it decides that team has done more overall.
Georgia is still the projected SEC champion, with the Bulldogs viewed as the most complete team in the field. The source of that confidence is simple: the committee could dismiss the Auburn loss and lean harder on Georgia’s win over Alabama.
In the ACC, Miami remains the projected champion. In the Big Ten, Indiana is the pick to take the league, even if its offense is not what it was a year ago. The Hoosiers could have a path back to Indianapolis, especially with Ohio State suddenly dealing with a quarterback injury issue.
Ohio State still lands in the bracket as the Big Ten runner-up. Julian Sayin’s absence could drag down the Buckeyes’ offense, even with Jeremiah Smith and despite the problems in the running game, but there’s still enough talent there to stay in the mix for a first-round bye.
The Big 12 projection goes to Utah, where the combination of Devon Dampier and Wayshawn Parker has the Utes rolling while they remain undefeated.
Beyond the conference winners, the at-large field is packed with teams trying to stay afloat as the losses start to matter more.
UCLA is still unbeaten and, in this projection, should get through the Big Ten with no worse than one loss. The Bruins also look capable of beating USC, which would open the door for a conference-title push.
Kentucky has surged to first place in the SEC race after beating Vanderbilt and is now 7-1. But the Wildcats still have a brutal stretch ahead with Tennessee, Missouri and Florida still on the schedule, so nothing is secure yet.
Texas is back in control of its playoff path after beating Ole Miss. The Longhorns are leaning on a defensive front that ranks No. 1 in FBS in total efficiency, and they still have ranked matchups left against Missouri and LSU. Much of their fate may come down to whether they get more Good Arch than Bad.
Houston is the projected Big 12 runner-up. Even with one loss already, the Cougars would still belong in the bracket with another defeat, likely coming against Utah on Nov. 7 or in Arlington. If they win both of those games, they would be top-four material for certain.
Auburn stays in the at-large mix after its strong win over Auburn. The Tigers still have three ranked opponents left, and the Alabama game could end up serving as a playoff play-in.
Notre Dame is still sitting comfortably in the top five in the AP poll despite the loss to BYU. Even so, another stumble - especially against Miami - could threaten its standing in the top 12 by the end of the season.
The projected Group of Six spot still belongs to Boise State after James Madison’s loss reaffirmed the Broncos as the favorite from the non-Power leagues. But there’s another major test ahead against Oregon State, and that game could still reshape the race for the 12th spot.
In Other News...
Ohio State Could Revisit A Familiar Ole Miss Transfer Path
The transfer pipeline from Oxford to Columbus has already worked once for Ohio State, and it could be a path worth watching again if Ole Miss running back Kewan Lacy decides his future is elsewhere. Quinshon Judkins made the jump from Ole Miss to Ohio State in 2023 and quickly became part of the Buckeyes productive backfield rotation, giving the program a clear example of how a proven SEC runner can fit into its system.
Lacys shoulder injury has only added more uncertainty around his next move, with speculation swirling about whether he could eventually enter the transfer portal or even look toward the NFL Draft. For Ohio State, the interest is obvious if he becomes available, but for now it remains just that, a possibility rather than a pursuit, with the Buckeyes and everyone else waiting to see how his situation unfolds. [Read more 🡒]
Ohio State Just Got A New Warning About USC Trip
USCs offense hit an unusual wall against Wisconsin, and that should at least sharpen Ohio States attention ahead of its trip west. In a loss that doubled as the lowest-scoring outing of the Lincoln Riley era, the Trojans were held to seven points and 241 total yards, with Wisconsin making a clear point of attacking the run game first and then getting after quarterback Jayden Maiava.
For Ohio State, the lesson is less about copying Wisconsin and more about seeing a workable blueprint. USC still has the pieces to stress a defense in a hurry, but when the running game gets bogged down and Maiava feels pressure, the whole operation can stall. That gives the Buckeyes a useful warning before they walk into the matchup, because stopping the early rhythm may matter just as much as dealing with the explosive plays everyone expects. [Read more 🡒]
Ohio State Heads To USC With Two Defensive Questions Lingering
Ohio States trip to USC is arriving with a familiar kind of October tension: a big road test, a short turnaround and a growing injury list after the Buckeyes win over Indiana. The latest concern on offense is Julian Sayin, whose injury appears likely to end his season, but the defensive side is carrying its own uncertainty as Ryan Day tries to sort out who will be available in Los Angeles.
Jay Timmons and Kenyatta Jackson are the names that now hang over the matchup, with Day offering only an update that leaves their status up in the air. For a Buckeyes team that is still trying to keep its focus on the next opponent, the timing matters because USC is the kind of game where every available body on defense matters, and Ohio State may not know its full plan until later in the week. [Read more 🡒]