The College Football Playoff picture got a lot messier after USC knocked off Ohio State, and the latest bracket projection reflects just how much movement came out of a chaotic final weekend in October.
At the top, Georgia still sits at No. 1 in the projection and remains the favorite to win the SEC after rolling past Florida. The Bulldogs still have a major test ahead, though, with a road trip to Ole Miss next Saturday likely to tell us plenty more.
The projected ACC champion also stayed unbeaten with a win at North Carolina, but there are real questions about whether that defense can keep this run going. The projection still has that team finishing perfect, though the committee could still prefer a one-loss SEC champion.
Utah kept its grip on the Big 12 race by piling up 42 first-half points at Cincinnati and cruising to another win. The Utes are still in first place, but that spot will be under heavy pressure when they face one-loss rival BYU in the Holy War.
The biggest shakeup came in the Big Ten. After Ohio State’s loss to USC, Indiana moved into the projected conference title spot, even though the Hoosiers needed overtime to get past Minnesota and their offense is still a work in progress.
The Wildcats are projected to reach the SEC championship game before falling to Georgia, which would still be enough to get them into the playoff. For Will Stein in his first season, that would be a strong result.
Ole Miss was idle this week, but its position improved thanks to wins over Mississippi State and Auburn, and even the loss to Kentucky looks better in the current bracket. The Rebels’ next test comes against Alabama, which should clarify things quickly.
UCLA remains unbeaten and could still finish the regular season without a loss, but the projection has the Bruins dropping the Big Ten championship game to Indiana.
Ohio State, meanwhile, is no longer projected to win the Big Ten. The Buckeyes fell from that spot to an at-large berth after the USC loss exposed what the projection calls real structural issues on the roster. It wasn’t just the quarterback change, either; the defense also looked out of sorts against the Trojans.
Texas Tech is back in the Big 12 title game projection after a key win over Arizona, but the Red Raiders are still forecast to lose to Utah in Arlington.
There’s also a path for a three-loss SEC team to sneak into the field. Alabama could fit that profile even with a loss to LSU, as long as it handles the rest of its schedule.
Notre Dame is projected to lose to Miami next week, which would push the Irish to the wrong side of the bubble and open the door for Ole Miss to move in, especially if the Rebels beat Georgia next Saturday.
And at the Group of Six level, Boise State remains the clear standard-bearer, though the committee will be watching closely when the Broncos face Oregon State.
In Other News...
Ohio State Just Got Troubling News Before USC's Passing Test
Ohio States secondary took a hit this week as Jay Timmons was downgraded from questionable to doubtful ahead of the matchup with USC. The Buckeyes have leaned on Timmons for several critical plays this season, and his status now casts a shadow over a defense that is already bracing for a major passing challenge.
If Timmons cannot go, Ohio State is expected to turn to Jermaine Matthews Jr. and Cam Calhoun to help fill the void. Against a Trojans offense that should test the back end early and often, the Buckeyes may have to adjust on the fly without one of their more reliable defensive backs. [Read more 🡒]
Ohio State Suddenly Has A Tavien St. Clair Question Fans Feared
Tavien St. Clair was supposed to be part of Ohio States long-term answer at quarterback, but the picture has shifted in a hurry. With true freshman Luke Fahey stepping in for the injured Julian Sayin, St. Clair is now working as the backup, a development that has changed the conversation around the room and around his place in the program.
For a player once viewed as the future at the position, the move naturally raises bigger questions about what comes next. Ohio State still has time to sort through the quarterback depth chart, and there are several possible paths ahead, but nothing has been settled yet, leaving St. Clairs status one of the more intriguing storylines to watch. [Read more 🡒]
Ohio State Suddenly Has A Bigger Problem Than One Road Loss
The loss at USC was jarring enough on its own, but the bigger concern for Ohio State may be what it revealed about the Buckeyes offense away from home. With backup quarterback Luke Fahey making the start in Los Angeles, Ohio State managed only one touchdown while USCs defense spent much of the night in the backfield, piling up tackles for loss and sacks and making every drive feel like a grind.
USC also delivered the kind of explosive play that can flip a marquee game in a hurry, with Mark Bowmans 70-yard catch-and-run helping the Trojans pull away in a 30-18 win over the No. 2 Buckeyes. For Lincoln Riley, it was his first top-five victory with USC, and for Ohio State it leaves a far more uncomfortable question than the final score: whether this was just a bad road night or a sign of a deeper issue the Buckeyes have to solve fast. [Read more 🡒]