A.J. Preller has spent years chasing the kind of deadline splash that grabs every headline in baseball. This time, the smartest move may be the least flashy one: trade Mason Miller before the Aug. 3 deadline.
That sounds wild on its face, especially because Miller has been exactly what the Padres hoped for when they got him from the A’s shortly before the 2025 trade deadline. He has been electric in San Diego, and there’s no argument about his quality.
He is MLB’s best reliever and maybe its most dominant pitcher overall. But the bigger picture still points in one direction for a Padres club that needs offense, needs starting pitching and doesn’t have the kind of asset base to patch all those holes.
The deal that brought Miller to San Diego already looks like a disaster. The Padres sent Leo De Vries, Braden Nett, Henry Baez and Eduarniel Núñez to Oakland in the trade for Miller and JP Sears.
De Vries, then and now one of the sport’s best prospects, was a consensus top-five prospect and arguably the most valuable prospect ever moved at the deadline. For a team that already had a loaded bullpen, paying that price for a closer made little sense.
The Padres then got bounced from the wild-card round by the Cubs.
Miller has done everything in his power to justify his side of the equation. In 62 appearances for San Diego, he has thrown 65 innings and gone 2-1 with a 0.83 ERA, a 0.82 WHIP and 123 strikeouts against 25 walks.
Among pitchers with at least 60 innings, he leads baseball in ERA, FIP (0.73), xERA (1.58), xFIP (1.29), strikeouts per nine innings (17.03 K/9) and strikeout rate (50.6%, a frankly absurd and unprecedented statistic-for reference, Randy Johnson holds the record among starting pitchers for career strikeout rate at 28.5%). He hasn’t allowed a home run since Aug. 5, and that was also the last time he blew a save.
Still, elite as he is, a closer can only do so much. The Padres are desperate for consistent offensive production, and De Vries is already punishing Double A pitching as a 19-year-old.
He’s likely to reach the big leagues out of spring training next year. That’s the kind of bat San Diego can’t replace easily, and it’s exactly why the Miller trade stings even more now.
Preller’s problem is bigger than one bad deal. The Padres’ farm system has been thinned out by years of going all-in on rosters that didn’t justify that level of aggression.
The result is an aging, top-heavy team with reinforcements still years away. Preller has made a habit of swinging big, including the 2022 Juan Soto trade, which also failed to deliver the payoff San Diego wanted.
The return on Soto never came close to matching the haul the Padres gave up, especially with James Wood, CJ Abrams, MacKenzie Gore, Jarlin Susana and Robert Hassell III now standing as the painful reminder of what was lost.
And that’s the trap San Diego is in now. To truly contend this year, the Padres would need an ace, a No. 3 starter and at least three bats.
They don’t have the desirable pieces to make that kind of overhaul happen. So instead of doubling down on a flawed roster, Preller needs to use the one asset that can still bring back real value.
Miller can do that. His trade value is as high as it gets, and a contender would pay for the chance to make the ninth inning feel automatic.
San Diego won’t get anything close to what it surrendered for him last year, because no other general manager would have paid that kind of price for De Vries. But Miller could still bring back two top-100 prospects plus the organizational depth the Padres badly need.
Word around the league is Preller doesn’t want to sell. That fits his style.
He’s never been the kind of executive to wave the white flag. But the facts are staring him down.
This Padres team is not built to win a championship this season, and another all-in move would only make the future harder to repair.
Preller has helped turn the Padres into a $3.9 billion franchise, and he remains baseball’s most exciting general manager. This year, though, the boldest choice is to be boring.
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