Dan Lanning has a mess on his hands, and the timing could hardly be worse.
Oregon walked into Stillwater as a 23.5-point favorite and walked out with a 39-31 loss to Oklahoma State, a result that landed as one of the most shocking upsets of the college football season. The Ducks were supposed to be past this kind of afternoon. They began the year No. 2 in the AP poll, had crushed Oklahoma State 69-3 last season and entered Saturday 36-0 against unranked teams under Lanning.
Instead, they were stunned by a Cowboys team that finished 1-11 a year ago, carried a 21-game losing streak against FBS opponents into the game and had already opened this season with a 24-10 loss at Tulsa. ESPN said Oklahoma State became the first team in the sport’s history to snap a 10+ game losing streak by defeating a top-10 opponent.
For Oregon, that makes this more than just a bad loss. It is a wrecking ball to the Ducks’ College Football Playoff hopes unless they respond the way Notre Dame did after its own early-season shocker in 2024.
Marcus Freeman’s Irish were No. 5 when they lost 16-14 to Northern Illinois in Week 2, dropped to No. 18 and then ripped off 13 straight wins on the way to the national title game. That is the blueprint Oregon now has to chase.
The problem is that the Ducks already showed some real warning signs in the first two weeks, and Saturday only made them harder to ignore. The staff overhaul matters here.
Lanning lost Tosh Lupoi, who coordinated his first four defenses before taking the California job, and Will Stein, who ran the offense for three years before Kentucky hired him as its head coach. In their place, Lanning elevated Drew Mehringer on offense and Chris Hampton on defense.
That move looked like a clean handoff for a program coming off back-to-back 13-win seasons. It did not look clean in Stillwater.
Oregon’s offense never really settled in. Dante Moore, who passed on what would have been a likely top-10 selection in the 2026 NFL Draft, finished 14 of 29 passing. A week after Oregon barely survived Boise State while converting just 4 of 15 on third and fourth downs, the Ducks were just 5 of 17 on those critical downs against Oklahoma State.
The Cowboys controlled the game more than the score suggests. They nearly doubled Oregon in total yards, 554-281, and held the Ducks to only one trip inside the red zone. Oregon got 14 points directly off two Oklahoma State interceptions, and even that wasn’t enough to avoid a late mistake of its own, with a fumble under two minutes left helping decide the finish.
There were other cracks, too. Oregon’s offensive line, billed as one of the best in the Big Ten and maybe the country, gave up four sacks to an Oklahoma State defense that had not recorded one against Tulsa in Week 1. Moore had not completed fewer than 60% of his passes in any game last season, even while dealing with injuries around him, but this time he never found a rhythm with a deeper receiving group and a returning backfield.
That also puts his decision to return under a brighter spotlight. The source of the question is simple: should he have entered the draft instead of coming back for a new play-caller and a 2027 quarterback class that looks stronger?
That debate can wait. Right now, Oregon has to deal with the damage from Saturday.
And the road ahead does not offer much comfort. The Ducks still have road games at No.
14 USC and No. 1 Ohio State, a season-ending matchup with No.
19 Washington, and a Nov. 14 home game against unranked Michigan that suddenly looks tougher after the Wolverines beat No. 11 Oklahoma on Saturday.
Those games could be salvation, or they could turn this into a season that slips away fast.
Brad Crawford’s CFP outlook was blunt: Oregon’s loss at Oklahoma State could be fatal to its playoff chances if the Ducks drop multiple Big Ten games, especially with so little margin for error and so many issues to clean up on both sides of the ball. The Cowboys entered the day after losing to Tulsa, so this gives Oregon a résumé blemish with no upside at all. If the Ducks do not fix things quickly, their playoff path may be gone before November.
In Other News...
Julian Love Just Gave Notre Dame Fans A Fresh NFL Debate
Julian Love opened his Seahawks season with the kind of game Notre Dame fans never stop noticing. The former Fighting Irish safety filled up the box score against the New England Patriots, making tackles, getting into the backfield and breaking up a pass while anchoring a Seattle defense that needed every stop it could get in a tight opener.
The biggest play came with the game tied, when Love came up with the interception that helped swing Seattle toward a 13-10 win. Pro Football Focus graded him as the games top defender with a 90 overall rating, which is the sort of showing that only adds fuel to the long-running debate around just how good he was, and still is, after leaving South Bend. [Read more 🡒]
Notre Dame Has A Chance To Answer One Early Offensive Concern
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Cooper Flanagan, in particular, is the kind of player who can change the shape of the afternoon if Notre Dame chooses to lean into his presence. The matchup also brings a real test for the tackles, who will be tasked with keeping quarterback CJ Carr comfortable while the offense looks to answer some of those early concerns. If the Irish can settle that side of the ball, the rest of the attack should have a better chance to open up. [Read more 🡒]
Notre Dames Home Opener Brings A Defensive Test Fans Cant Ignore
Notre Dames home opener arrives with the kind of defensive assignment that can set an early tone for the season. The No. 3 Fighting Irish welcome Rice to South Bend with Marcus Freeman and defensive coordinator Chris Ash asking their unit to stay sharp against a run-heavy offense, one that wants to lean on volume, discipline and physicality to move the chains. For a defense built to smother mistakes and force opponents out of rhythm, this is the sort of first test that shows up quickly on the field.
The matchup inside will be worth watching, especially with defensive tackle Tionne Gray stepping into a bigger role and the Irish linebackers expected to sort through Rices rushing playmakers. Notre Dame can get through an opener like this only if the tackling stays clean and the front handles traffic without giving up easy yards, which is why this game feels less like a routine nonconference tune-up and more like an early gauge of how ready the defense really is. [Read more 🡒]