Oklahoma’s Playoff Push: Dominant Defense, Questionable Offense, and a Spot on the Bubble
As the dust settles on the 2025 college football regular season, the playoff picture is about to come into focus. And with the second-ever 12-team College Football Playoff field set to be revealed, one of the most intriguing teams sitting on the bubble is Oklahoma.
The Sooners wrapped up their season at 10-2 and are hunting for their first playoff berth since 2019. The resume is strong, but the question is whether it’s strong enough - especially with an offense that’s been more of a liability than an asset down the stretch.
Let’s break down what’s working for Oklahoma - and what might hold them back.
What’s Working in Oklahoma’s Favor
If you’re building a playoff case around defense, Oklahoma’s got a compelling argument. This unit has been the backbone of the team all season, and outside of a slip-up against Ole Miss, they've consistently shut down opposing offenses - and we’re not talking about a soft schedule here.
The Sooners faced Michigan, Auburn, South Carolina, Tennessee, Alabama, Missouri and LSU. Not a single one of those teams cracked 28 points.
In fact, five of them - including LSU and Michigan - didn’t even reach 17. That kind of defensive consistency is rare in today’s high-octane college football landscape, and it’s a major reason Oklahoma is still in the playoff conversation.
From a metrics standpoint, the Sooners check a lot of boxes. They’re ranked 9th in strength of record and 12th in strength of schedule, according to ESPN. That means they’ve not only played a tough slate, but they’ve also handled it better than most.
Advanced stats back it up, too. Oklahoma is 12th in the FEI ratings, 13th in Sagarin, and 16th in ESPN’s Football Power Index.
All of those rankings are buoyed by a defense that ranks 7th nationally in points allowed (13.9 per game) and 9th in total yards allowed (273.6). That’s elite company.
And then there’s the Alabama win - a gritty, grind-it-out road victory that snapped Kalen DeBoer’s perfect home record in Tuscaloosa. That’s not just a quality win - it’s a statement.
What’s Working Against Them
Here’s where things get complicated: Oklahoma’s offense hasn’t just been inconsistent - it’s been downright ineffective at times.
In November, when teams are supposed to be peaking, the Sooners averaged just 22.5 points per game. That would rank them 105th nationally over that stretch. On the full season, they sit at 78th in scoring offense - a number that simply doesn’t align with playoff-level expectations.
This is a team winning games the old-school way - think Iowa-style football - leaning on defense and hoping the offense can do just enough. But when they’ve faced a top-tier offense, the cracks have shown.
Against Ole Miss, the Sooners gave up 34 points and lost the time of possession battle by over 11 minutes. That wasn’t a result of facing an elite shutdown defense - it was the product of an offense that couldn’t stay on the field.
The numbers tell the story. Oklahoma ranks in the bottom half of the SEC in both total yards per game and points per game.
They’re 45th in FEI offensive efficiency - behind teams like Arizona State, UNLV, and Air Force. That’s not the company you want to be keeping if you're trying to convince the committee you belong in the top 12.
Another factor working against them? Some of their key wins have lost a bit of shine.
Missouri has already dropped out of the rankings, and Tennessee is expected to follow. Those games will still count as quality wins in the eyes of the committee, but they won’t carry quite the same weight as they did a few weeks ago.
Where Does That Leave Oklahoma?
The Sooners have a playoff-caliber defense - no question. The wins over Michigan, Tennessee, Alabama, and Missouri are all meaningful, and avoiding any “bad losses” has kept them in the hunt.
But the offense is a real concern. In a 12-team playoff format, there’s room for teams with one glaring flaw - and Oklahoma’s is clear. The defense can carry them only so far, and against high-powered playoff offenses, you wonder how long they can hold up without more help from the other side of the ball.
The committee will have to weigh whether Oklahoma’s elite defense and quality wins outweigh their offensive struggles. They’ve done enough to be in the playoff field.
Hosting a game, though? That’s a different conversation.
Losses to Ole Miss and Texas - especially the way they lost to the Longhorns in the Red River Shootout - could be enough to keep Oklahoma on the road for the first round. Still, this is a team no one wants to face. Because if that defense shows up the way it has all season, the Sooners are capable of making noise - even if their offense doesn’t.