Notre Dame’s path to the College Football Playoff looks manageable on paper, but that’s only part of the story.
CBS Sports’ Brad Crawford included the Fighting Irish in one of his “10 bold predictions,” and his read is straightforward: even if Notre Dame loses to Miami on November 7, it can still get into the CFP if it beats SMU. That argument isn’t crazy. Crawford points out that the Mustangs could be ranked as high as the Top 15 by the time they meet Notre Dame late in the season, especially if SMU keeps rolling and gets past Wake Forest on November 14.
“Everyone's pointing to the Fighting Irish's upcoming game against unbeaten Miami on November 7 as a must-win following their loss to BYU …” Crawford wrote in the column.
He also laid out the rest of the case this way:
“Notre Dame hosts SMU in late November, and there's a solid chance the Mustangs come into that one 9-1 on a seven-game winning streak if they get past Wake Forest on November 14. From there, all Notre Dame has to do is finish inside the selection committee's top 12, given this season's CFP assurance. As long as the Fighting Irish get to 10 wins, they're getting in this time around.”
That’s the clean version. The messier version is that Notre Dame’s fate still runs through the committee, and history says that’s never something to trust blindly.
The latest AP Top 25 already has the Irish at No. 5 while they wait out the bye, so they remain in good shape for now. And yes, if Notre Dame is sitting at No. 12 in the final College Football Playoff Poll, it’s in automatically. The catch is obvious: the committee can keep the Irish out by placing them 13th or lower.
That’s not a fantasy scenario. It happened last year, when Notre Dame stayed in the bracket picture for weeks before dropping out after a big win for its 10th victory of the season.
The explanations for that slide were bizarre and unconvincing, but there was no appeal process to fix it. Instead, an SEC-heavy committee slid Alabama ahead of the Irish, and that move aged badly when the Crimson Tide got blown out in the first round.
So Crawford’s prediction cuts both ways. It opens the door for a two-loss Notre Dame team to reach the playoff, but it also leaves plenty of room for the committee to shut that door if it wants to.
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The immediate concern is Navy, but the bigger worry around the program is what this looks like with Miami approaching. Notre Dame believes this cluster of injuries will matter even more in that matchup, where available bodies and rotational flexibility tend to be tested far more aggressively, especially on defense. [Read more 🡒]
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Henderson, for his part, has not given any indication that he is ready to move off his pledge, saying he still believes Texas A&M is the best fit. Notre Dame is still hoping to make a push before December signing day, but for now the Irish are simply trying to stay in the conversation and see whether the effort can turn into something more. [Read more 🡒]
Notre Dame Fans Finally Get A First Look At Hidalgos New Support
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For a team that already knows what it has in Hidalgo, the bigger question is how quickly those new pieces can settle in and change the way Notre Dame plays. Exhibition games do not answer everything, but they can offer a first glimpse at chemistry, roles and the kind of support the Irish hope will make this group deeper when the games start to count. [Read more 🡒]