Notre Dame's Rise in Returning Production: A Closer Look
Notre Dame might not have been your first pick for the top spot in returning production, especially after losing standout players like Jeremiyah Love, Jadarian Price, and Malachi Fields, all potential first-round picks in the upcoming NFL Draft. Yet, ESPN's Bill Connelly has placed the Irish at No. 1, just edging out Maryland.
Understanding Returning Production
Returning production is Connelly's formula that measures the percentage of last year's team stats that carry over into the new season. Offensively, it includes metrics like offensive line snaps, receiving yards, rushing yards, and passing yards, each with different weights. Defensively, it's about snaps, tackles, and tackles for loss.
Notre Dame's Standout Numbers
According to Connelly, Notre Dame brings back 67% of its offensive production and 77% of its defensive production, the latter being second only to Florida. With an overall returning production of 72%, Notre Dame leads the nation, narrowly beating Maryland by a single percentage point. This positions the Irish as a team likely to make significant strides in 2026, alongside BYU and Texas.
Why the High Ranking Despite Key Losses?
Despite losing Love and Price, who combined for over 2,000 rushing yards and 29 touchdowns, the impact on the formula is minimal since rushing yards account for just 3.1% of the overall calculation. While losing Malachi Fields and Eli Raridon is significant, retaining Jordan Faison and CJ Carr's impressive passing stats is crucial.
Defensively, the contributions of Boubacar Traore and Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa, with their combined 17.5 tackles for loss, bolster Notre Dame's ranking. The addition of transfers like Francis Brewu and Keeon Keeley further strengthens their defensive outlook.
Looking Ahead to the 2026 Season
Notre Dame's schedule includes only two teams in the top 25 for returning production: BYU and SMU. Conversely, they face four teams ranked 90th or worse, providing a potentially favorable path.
Last year, Clemson topped the returning production list but ended with a 7-6 record. Similarly, Virginia Tech led in 2024 but finished 6-7. However, Florida State in 2023 returned 87% of its production and had a stellar 13-1 season, although they were controversially left out of the playoffs.
Notre Dame aims to defy the odds, with DraftKings listing them as co-favorites for the national championship. Fan Duel projects their win total at 11.5. As always, the true test will be the results on the field.