Notre Dame’s playoff path may be reduced to one night in South Bend.
That’s the view Greg McElroy laid out after the Irish handled Navy 35-13, with the ESPN analyst arguing that Saturday’s home matchup with No. 1 Miami will determine whether Notre Dame stays in the College Football Playoff conversation or slips into the bubble.
At 7-1, Notre Dame still has a solid record, but McElroy said the résumé doesn’t have the kind of win that can carry real weight. The Irish have yet to beat a ranked opponent, and their lone shot at one ended in a four-point loss at BYU. The victories on the schedule so far have come against Wisconsin at a neutral site, Rice, Michigan State, Purdue, North Carolina, Stanford and Navy.
That list looked even thinner after last weekend, when Wisconsin was shut out 30-0 at Iowa and SMU lost at Syracuse with Notre Dame still set to face the Mustangs on Nov. 21. McElroy pointed to the overall quality of the wins when he broke it down on his “Always College Football” podcast.
“The seven teams they’ve beaten are a combined 21-36 right now,” McElroy said.
He also doesn’t believe the Irish will find much help in the stretch run. Boston College, SMU and Syracuse remain on the regular-season schedule, but McElroy said none of those games offers the kind of boost Notre Dame needs.
“After that, Boston College can’t help you. SMU can’t help you now after the loss this past weekend, and I don’t think Syracuse can help you, either,” he said.
That leaves Miami carrying the full burden of the Irish’s case when the first College Football Playoff rankings arrive and the final five weeks unfold.
“This win is the whole résumé. You lose it, and then you’re a two-loss team with not a lot to show for it, and you might be sitting there around 12, 13, 14, and you might be at the mercy of what happens in other places,” McElroy said.
Notre Dame’s offense leaned on the ground against Navy, with Nolan James Jr. scoring on runs of 52 and 23 yards and finishing with 107 yards on nine carries. McElroy doesn’t think that formula will work against Miami.
“The only way Notre Dame’s winning that game next week is not by running for 300,” McElroy said. “They’re going to throw for 300.”
That puts the spotlight squarely on CJ Carr, who passed for 210 yards and two touchdowns against Navy. McElroy called Carr the most reliable part of the Irish offense, especially with the offensive line and running backs not always delivering consistent production.
“I still think CJ Carr is their best player. I still think the passing game is their best offensive attribute,” he said. “I trust Carr to make the correct decision every time he drops back.”
Miami enters at 8-0, but its pass defense was stretched badly at North Carolina. Billy Edwards Jr. went 28 of 34 for 341 yards and four touchdowns in the Hurricanes’ 38-35 win, and Mario Cristobal acknowledged the issues afterward.
“I thought there were some soft spots in our coverage where our zone drops weren’t as good, as detailed,” Cristobal said.
Marquise Lightfoot, whose strip-sack of Edwards helped set up Miami’s final touchdown, said communication problems were part of the issue in a secondary dealing with injuries. McElroy believes that area of the field will decide the matchup.
“They need to have some answers in the back end defensively because if there’s one thing we know, it’s that Notre Dame’s got a very capable quarterback and they have very good personnel at wide receiver,” McElroy said.
Miami beat Notre Dame 27-24 in the 2025 season opener, a result that helped the Hurricanes secure a playoff spot over the Irish. The No.
1 Hurricanes and No. 4 Irish meet Saturday at 7:30 p.m.
ET on NBC and Peacock at Notre Dame Stadium.
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