Notre Dame's Playoff Path Just Got More Complicated Than Fans Expected

Despite a strong start, Notre Dame's CFP positioning hinges on upcoming key matchups as ESPN projects them outside the coveted top-five.

Notre Dame’s spot in the national conversation looks a little different depending on where you check the rankings. The Fighting Irish are No. 3 in the latest US LBM Coaches and Associated Press polls, but ESPN’s post-Week 3 College Football Playoff projection has them slotted at No. 6.

Heather Dinich’s updated bracket gives Notre Dame a projected on-campus first-round game against No. 11 USC.

In that scenario, the winner would move on to face No. 3 Ohio State in the quarterfinals.

Notre Dame is 3-0, and Dinich pointed to the Irish’s 2-0 mark against Big Ten opponents as a positive sign. Those wins came against Wisconsin, 41-13, and Michigan State, 27-10.

“While wins against unranked Wisconsin and Michigan State don't exactly make a statement, they’d still likely be considered respectable in the committee meeting room as higher value opponents than some other contenders have faced,” Dinich said. “Notre Dame hasn't played an FCS opponent like some teams have. The committee would also consider the challenge of playing Wisconsin at Lambeau Field but recognize Notre Dame's overall stats are partially inflated from a 52-0 win against Rice.”

Dinich also said Notre Dame could work its way into the CFP top five thanks to its “elite” defense and a CJ Carr-led offense that is currently top 10 in efficiency.

For now, ESPN Analytics has the Irish’s remaining schedule ranked 50th in the country. Even so, Dinich said the committee would “highly value” upcoming wins over No.

9 BYU and No. 6 Miami, two teams that have already built strong CFP resumes.

“The head-to-head tiebreakers would also be important to the seeding process on Selection Day,” Dinich added.

At the top of Dinich’s current CFP board are Texas, Ole Miss, Ohio State, Georgia and Miami.

In Other News...

Notre Dame Backfield Battle Just Put New Pressure On Aneyas Williams

Marcus Freeman spent part of the week cleaning up the public side of a moment with Aneyas Williams, saying he regretted how he reacted to Williams excessive celebration penalty in the recent game. The coach made clear the relationship remains strong, but the bigger message for Notre Dames offense showed up in the backfield picture, where the depth chart now has Nolan James Jr. listed as a co-starter with Williams.

That move raises the stakes for Williams at a time when his workload was already dipping in the second half. James pushed his way into the conversation with a strong outing that included 121 yards and a touchdown, and Notre Dame now has a clearer sense that this is not a one-man backfield anymore. For Williams, the challenge is no longer just about bouncing back from one penalty - it is about holding onto snaps in a rotation that suddenly looks a lot more competitive. [Read more 🡒]

Notre Dame Suddenly Has Two Big Questions Fans Need To Watch

Notre Dames mens basketball calendar for 2026-27 already has a destination-game feel, with the season set to open against Villanova in Rome. It will be the programs first regular-season game outside the United States, and it arrives as part of a schedule that also gives the Irish a rare stretch of stability at home, with a record nine straight games in South Bend running from late November into early January.

On the football side, the more immediate watch item is the roster and schedule churn surrounding the program. Luke Talichs availability at safety remains uncertain, the running back depth chart has shifted, and Georgia Techs withdrawal from a 2027 game has forced Notre Dame to look for a replacement opponent. For a program that is always balancing long-term planning with week-to-week uncertainty, it is suddenly dealing with both at once. [Read more 🡒]

Notre Dame Run Game Gets A Huge Chance To Wake Up Saturday

Purdues defense has been giving up far too much in recent weeks, and head coach Barry Odom has already pointed to the big plays and yardage as a critical problem. That makes Saturday a useful measuring stick for Notre Dame, which is still trying to get its running game moving with more consistency as it heads into the matchup.

For the Irish, this is the kind of game that can help answer whether the ground attack is ready to take a step forward. Purdues issues on defense should create opportunities, but Notre Dame still has to turn them into clean, efficient production, because both teams are walking into the game with something to prove on that side of the ball. [Read more 🡒]