ESPN’s latest bowl projections split hard on Notre Dame after the Irish’s first loss of the season, and the gap between Mark Schlabach and Kyle Bonagura is as wide as it gets.
Up to this point, Notre Dame had been a fixture in both writers’ playoff fields. The Irish were unbeaten, had ripped off 16 straight wins dating back to September of the 2025 season, and had done it by double digits every time. Then came the 28-24 road loss to undefeated BYU in a matchup of Top 10 teams, and the tidy consensus disappeared.
Schlabach still has Notre Dame in the 12-team College Football Playoffs, slotting the Irish at No. 6 behind BYU, Miami, Ohio State, Georgia and UCLA. In his bracket, Notre Dame would host Tennessee in the opening round, then face Ohio State in the quarterfinals. He sees the Irish beating the Buckeyes, moving on to a semifinal rematch with Miami, and falling there before a Miami-Georgia title game.
Bonagura’s projection tells a very different story. He leaves Notre Dame out of the playoff field entirely, despite the Irish’s resume entering the week. His top 12 includes Miami, BYU, Ohio State, Georgia, Utah, UCLA, Texas Tech, Indiana, Tennessee, Ole Miss, Wake Forest and Boise State.
The more striking part is what comes after that. Bonagura doesn’t have Notre Dame in a bowl game at all. Since the Irish already became bowl-eligible with their sixth win over Stanford the week before the BYU game, that projection would mean no postseason at all unless they make the playoff.
That kind of call is tough to ignore, especially after Bonagura had Notre Dame playing for the title against Ohio State in August. After the Irish’s first loss, he now has them outside the postseason picture completely.
It may simply be an oversight, and that’s possible. But if it isn’t, it suggests Bonagura believes Notre Dame’s path after the BYU loss gets rough enough to knock them out of the Top 12 by Selection Sunday. In his setup, Miami reaches the No. 1 seed, finishes the regular season undefeated and beats Notre Dame in South Bend, leaving the Irish with two losses and out of the bracket.
Schlabach and Bonagura do agree on one thing: Miami and BYU both get byes in the 2026 CFP. Schlabach sends Miami to the title game, while Bonagura has BYU meeting the Hurricanes for the national championship. None of Notre Dame’s other 2026 regular-season opponents make the playoff field, though three others do reach the postseason.
In Other News...
Notre Dames BYU Loss Just Got Even More Infuriating
The ending of Notre Dames loss to BYU already felt odd in real time, and now the conference has made it official: an officiating error affected the final sequence. The Big 12 said one second remained on the clock but was not properly accounted for, which meant the game ended before Notre Dame got the extra snap it should have had on 2nd and goal.
Even more frustrating for the Irish is that the replay officiating crew cleared the play anyway, closing the door on a chance to score in the most critical moment of the night. The conference says it will review its end-of-game officiating process after the incident, but for Notre Dame that only sharpens the sting of a loss that now comes with a documented missed opportunity attached to it. [Read more 🡒]
Marcus Freeman Addresses What Went Wrong In Notre Dame's Costly Loss
Marcus Freeman had a clear read on what hurt Notre Dame in its loss to BYU, and it started with the kind of details that usually decide close games. The defense struggled with discipline against a misdirection-heavy offense, while the offense left points on the field by not being efficient enough in the red zone. For a team that had stacked up a 16-game winning streak, those lapses stood out even more because they came in the moments when control of the game was there to be taken.
Freeman also pointed to the adjustments Notre Dame made after halftime, which helped steady things but did not erase the damage from the early mistakes and missed chances. The bigger concern now is execution in the critical spots that turn solid performances into wins, especially when the margin is thin and the opponent is forcing defenders and play-callers to think on the fly. [Read more 🡒]
Notre Dame Suddenly Has An Offensive Question It Can't Ignore
The loss to BYU was more than just Notre Dames first defeat in 17 games. It also exposed an offense that left too many points on the field, whether through missed scoring chances or a rhythm that looked too easy for the Cougars to diagnose. For a team that had spent weeks building momentum, the 28-24 setback served as a reminder that the margin gets thin quickly when the attack stalls at the wrong time.
Mike Denbrock and CJ Carr now get a bye week to sort through the issues before Miami comes to South Bend. Jaden Greathouse gave the Irish a bright spot with 8 catches for 125 yards, but Notre Dame will need more than one productive outing from its receivers if it wants the offense to look less predictable and more dangerous when play resumes. [Read more 🡒]