Notre Dame goes into Saturday night’s matchup with Purdue still trying to straighten out its run game, and the timing could hardly be better. The Boilermakers just spent last weekend getting ripped apart by UCLA, and that kind of defensive mess is exactly the sort of opening the Irish would love to exploit.
Purdue’s offense has held up its end. It has not scored fewer than 36 points in any game this season.
The problem is what’s happening on the other side of the ball. Against FBS opponents, the Boilermakers have not held anyone below 38 points, and head coach Barry Odom is already taking heat for bringing back defensive coordinator Kevin Kane.
So far, that move has looked rough. Last week was the low point yet. Purdue surrendered 645 yards, gave up 20 explosive plays and had the kind of third-down breakdown that jumps off the page: UCLA converted 11 of 14 chances.
“Any way you slice and dice it, if we don’t get that fixed, we have no chance defensively to be able to play winning football,” Odom said after the game.
The Bruins didn’t need to get cute to pile up the damage. They ran for 386 yards and posted a 0.51 EPA on the ground, a number that reflects just how efficiently they controlled the game.
They also added 278 passing yards and finished with a 0.61 EPA/Play overall. By the end, UCLA had a successful play rate of 58%.
That’s the kind of production Notre Dame’s offense will be eyeing, especially with its own ground game still searching for a cleaner edge. The Irish are sitting at 0.09 EPA/Play on the ground so far this season, which means the run game has been serviceable without really taking off. Against Purdue, though, the path is there.
This isn’t the first time Odom’s defense has looked vulnerable. A week earlier against Wake Forest, Purdue’s stop unit again struggled to get off the field. The Demon Deacons didn’t run for nearly as many yards as UCLA, but they still posted a 0.33 EPA/Play on the ground and turned in a successful play rate of nearly 60% while rushing for 216 yards.
For Notre Dame, that leaves Saturday night with a pretty clear opportunity. Purdue’s defense has been broken in the exact area the Irish most want to clean up, and Odom has already admitted the problem is severe. The challenge now is whether Notre Dame can turn that weakness into the kind of run-game breakthrough it has been chasing.
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