Week 6 brings a full slate of ranked matchups, and the betting board is giving us a few clear spots to target. With top-25 teams scattered across the schedule, the spread decisions come down to which teams have actually backed up the numbers so far.
Missouri is the first team that jumps off the page. After last week’s win over Florida, the Tigers are starting to look like a group worth taking seriously.
They sit 12th in the country in adjusted EPA per play and 33rd in net success rate, and now they get a Texas A&M team that has not matched preseason expectations. The Aggies are 43rd in adjusted EPA per play and 109th in net yards per play at -1.10.
Texas A&M has had more success running the ball than throwing it, but Missouri’s defense is built to handle that, ranking 30th in opponent EPA per rush. This doesn’t look like a trap spot to me.
I’d take Missouri to win and cover as a home favorite.
Another game shapes up as a defensive grind. These two teams rank first and third in opponent-adjusted EPA per play, and first and 11th in opponent success rate.
On offense, though, both teams are stuck outside the top 40 in almost every meaningful category, and Oklahoma is barely inside the top 100 in several areas, including 91st in adjusted EPA per play. If this turns into the kind of low-scoring battle the metrics suggest, the value is with the team getting more than a touchdown.
Notre Dame’s resume may not be packed with elite opponents yet, but the numbers still make a strong case for the Fighting Irish. They rank first in the nation in net adjusted EPA per play, which accounts for strength of competition, and they’re second only to Alabama in net success rate.
Stanford, by contrast, has been one of the weakest power conference teams around, sitting 122nd in net success rate. Notre Dame should handle this one comfortably.
Ohio State is in a similar position, only with even more firepower. Maryland has struggled across the board and currently ranks 100th in adjusted EPA per play and 87th in net success rate at -3.1%.
The Buckeyes are fifth and sixth in those same categories. If the Terps are going to stay within reach, they’ll need a way to slow down Jeremiah Smith, Julian Sayin, and the Ohio State passing game.
That’s a tough ask for a defense that ranks 77th in opponent EPA per pass and 72nd in opponent pass success rate.
Boise State is the other side worth circling. Both teams are 4-1, but the Broncos are the ones with the stronger profile.
They’re 18th in the country in both adjusted EPA per play and net success rate, while the Bulldogs sit 79th and 74th in those metrics. The schedule tells part of the story too: the Bulldogs lost 39-0 to the Trojans in Week 1, then beat San Jose State by 16 and Rice by 14.
Boise State, meanwhile, nearly knocked off the Ducks in the opener and followed that up with a 32-7 win over Western Michigan. I’d be willing to lay the points with Boise State as long as the spread stays below seven.
In Other News...
Notre Dames BYU Matchup Just Took A Huge Turn For The Irish
BYUs offense just lost one of its most important pieces ahead of its October 17 trip to South Bend. Running back LJ Martin, who has been a key part of the Cougars rushing attack, will be out for at least one month after sustaining a lower-body injury in the game against TCU. For Notre Dame, that changes the feel of a matchup that already carried plenty of weight.
Martins absence matters because BYU now has to reshape how it wants to move the ball, especially if it needs to lean more heavily on the passing game to make up for the lost production on the ground. The Irish will still have to prepare for a physical, capable opponent, but the loss of a primary rushing threat gives Notre Dame a little more clarity on what this game may look like when the Cougars arrive. [Read more 🡒]
Mike Denbrock Sees One Thing Holding Back Notre Dame's Offense
Notre Dames offense has put together a strong start in the 2026 season, piling up 41.2 points per game while showing up near the top of the national statistical rankings in a number of key areas. The Irish have protected the football well, kept the quarterback relatively clean and produced efficient play overall, which is a big reason the unit has looked more complete than it did at times a year ago.
Still, offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock sees room for growth in the parts of the game that tend to decide tighter matchups. Third-down conversions and red zone finishing remain the biggest emphasis, and the Irish also want to build more depth at receiver so their top targets are not carrying the load every week. For a team that has already shown it can score, the next step is making sure those drives keep ending with points when the field shrinks and the pressure rises. [Read more 🡒]
Penn States Big Ten Collapse Became A Warning Wisconsin Fans Know
Penn States loss to Notre Dame in the 2024 College Football Playoff semifinal at the Orange Bowl still looms over what followed, because the Nittany Lions opened the 2025 season 3-0 and then watched the year unravel almost immediately after. Six straight losses pushed the program into a full reset, ending with James Franklins firing and the search for a new direction in a conference that rarely forgives a long skid.
Matt Campbell arrived 58 days later, bringing several players with him from Iowa State and hoping to stabilize a roster that suddenly needed a new identity. The early returns in Big Ten play made the adjustment look even tougher, a reminder for Wisconsin fans of how quickly a contender can go from promising to vulnerable when the conference grind exposes every flaw. [Read more 🡒]