Notre Dame’s place in ESPN’s latest 2026 Football Power Index comes with a clear message: the Fighting Irish are being treated like a real contender.
ESPN slotted Notre Dame at No. 3 overall in the FPI, behind only Ohio State and Texas. The ranking is built around expected point margin on a neutral field, along with projected records, playoff odds, title chances and other season-long simulations.
The Irish also checked in at No. 2 in projected record at 10.7 and 1.3, which rounds to 11-1. Texas Tech sits just ahead of Notre Dame in that category at 10.8 and 1.8, while Miami is right behind the Irish at 10.4 and 2.3, or 10-2.
One of the biggest eye-openers in the model is Notre Dame’s win-out percentage. ESPN gives the Irish a nation-best 32.7, even though that metric includes a conference championship game, which obviously does not apply to Notre Dame. Texas Tech is next at 25.2, followed by Georgia at 10.9 percent.
Notre Dame also comes out at No. 1 nationally in percentage to win six or more games, sitting at 100.0. In ESPN’s simulations, the Irish reached at least six wins every single time. Their season and College Football Playoff path will come down to games against BYU, Miami and SMU.
The playoff numbers are strong, too. Notre Dame has the No. 2 odds to make the College Football Playoff at 74.4 percent, just behind Ohio State at 75.7 percent. The Irish also own the third-best odds to reach the title game and the third-highest odds to win the national championship, trailing Texas and Ohio State in both categories.
Elsewhere in the top 25, the SEC placed 12 teams in ESPN’s FPI rankings. The Big Ten had seven teams represented, while the ACC had three and the Big 12 had two.
Three of Notre Dame’s opponents landed in the top 25 as well: Miami at No. 7, BYU at No. 20 and SMU at No.
Here is ESPN’s FPI top 25:
- Ohio State Buckeyes
- Texas Longhorns
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish
- Oregon Ducks
- Georgia Bulldogs
- Indiana Hoosiers
- Miami Hurricanes
- Alabama Crimson Tide
- LSU Tigers
- Texas Tech Red Raiders
- Texas A&M Aggies
- Oklahoma Sooners
- USC Trojans
- Ole Miss Rebels
- Michigan Wolverines
- Tennessee Volunteers
- Penn State Nittany Lions
- Florida Gators
- Clemson Tigers
- BYU Cougars
- Missouri Tigers
- Auburn Tigers
- South Carolina Gamecocks
- SMU Mustangs
- Iowa Hawkeyes
In Other News...
Brian Kelly Just Took Another Brutal Public Shot From ESPN
Brian Kellys post-coaching public life is already drawing scrutiny before he even settles into his next role. After being fired by LSU, the former Notre Dame coach is set to move into television as an analyst this coming season, a turn that should keep him visible even as he steps away from the sideline.
But not everyone around ESPN sounds eager to welcome him into that world. Paul Finebaum, who spent three years talking with Kelly every Monday during his LSU tenure, made it clear he has no interest in doing it again, a blunt reminder that Kellys reputation has taken plenty of hits since his stops at Cincinnati, Notre Dame and LSU. [Read more 🡒]
Notre Dame May Have Found CJ Carrs Go To Target After All
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Pickell even sees Carr and Graham as one of the top quarterback-wide receiver pairings in college football, which is a notable projection for a player who arrives with only limited production behind him. Grahams path to South Bend has been more about potential than rsum, but if Carr follows up his strong 2025 season the way many expect, Notre Dame may have found the kind of go-to connection that can define an offense for a full season. [Read more 🡒]
Notre Dame Freshmen Are Already Pushing A Contender's Offense
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Premer looks like the clearest candidate to carve out meaningful snaps early, while Frazier could also find a path onto the field on offense and special teams in a role that mirrors what Jordan Faison has provided. The bigger picture for Notre Dame is even more interesting: if the freshmen keep pushing the veterans the way they have so far, this group could wind up scattered across the two-deep before the regular season is over, giving the offense another layer of help as the year unfolds. [Read more 🡒]