Kirk Herbstreit didn’t need long to zero in on the biggest eyebrow-raiser from the first College Football Playoff rankings: Notre Dame sitting at No. 11.
On Tuesday night’s “Nonstop,” the ESPN analyst said the Irish’s placement stood out more than anything else in the release, and he pointed to Saturday’s matchup with top-ranked Miami as the game that could settle where Notre Dame ends up.
“The one thing, I guess, if there was a surprise, it would probably be that Notre Dame is sitting down there at 11,” Herbstreit said Tuesday night on “Nonstop,” the show he co-hosts with ESPN analyst Joey Galloway. “I was a little bit surprised by that.”
Notre Dame is 7-1 and entered the rankings at No. 4 in the AP poll, but the committee placed the Irish behind Alabama, Texas and Ole Miss, all of whom have two losses. Committee chair Hunter Yurachek said Notre Dame doesn’t have “that signature win right now” and pointed to the neutral-site win over Wisconsin as its best result.
Herbstreit said the Irish’s path becomes a lot clearer if they take care of business against Miami.
“If they win this game, then I think there’s really no discussion,” Herbstreit said. “I think they’ll shoot up the rankings, probably up into the top six or seven, depending on what happens this weekend with some of the other big games.”
He also made clear that he didn’t see the No. 11 spot as some outrageous slight.
“I don’t necessarily have a huge problem with where Notre Dame is,” Herbstreit said. “Based on who they’ve played, who they’ve beaten and who they lost to against their one ranked opponent, it’s not necessarily a shock that they are where they are.”
The bigger concern comes if the Irish stumble. Herbstreit said a loss would leave Notre Dame with a résumé that’s hard to sell, especially without a win over a ranked opponent.
“If you play worst-case scenario, if Notre Dame were to somehow lose this game, you look at their résumé and, let’s face it, they’ve not been able to beat a lot of teams right now,” Herbstreit said.
He added that a defeat wouldn’t eliminate Notre Dame outright, but it would put the Irish in a tough spot.
“If they lose, they’re not done,” Herbstreit said. “I wouldn’t sit here and say they’re done, but I would say they’re on the outside looking in.
You’re sitting there at 10-2 and you’re left with, ‘Well, hey, we beat SMU, we beat North Carolina.’ I just don’t know what you really have as an argument.”
Notre Dame does have one important thing working in its favor: if it finishes in the committee’s top 12, it gets an automatic bid. That’s a shift from last season, when the Irish finished No. 11 but still missed the field after Miami jumped them in the final rankings.
The rest of Notre Dame’s regular season still includes Boston College and SMU in South Bend, followed by a trip to Syracuse.
“The cool thing is Notre Dame doesn’t need any help,” Herbstreit said. “The ball’s in their court.”
Greg McElroy made a similar point earlier this week, saying one game will decide Notre Dame’s playoff fate. Miami, now 8-0, and Notre Dame are set for a 7:30 p.m. ET kickoff Saturday in South Bend on NBC and Peacock.
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