Miami heads into Saturday’s showdown with Notre Dame carrying a label nobody saw coming: the No. 1 team in the country, yet a sizable underdog.
That’s the strange reality created by the first College Football Playoff rankings of the season. Miami sits atop the CFP list, and the Hurricanes have also owned the No. 1 spot in both the AP Poll and Coaches Poll for three straight weeks. Even with that résumé and an undefeated record, the betting market is leaning hard toward Notre Dame.
DraftKings has Miami as a 7.5-point underdog, an unusual number for any No. 1 team - and especially for one facing a team ranked outside the CFP top 10. Notre Dame checks in at No. 11 in the playoff rankings, making this a 10-spot gap between the two programs. In the CFP era, which started in 2014, this is the first time the nation’s top-ranked team has been an underdog to a team outside the top 10.
Still, the line makes more sense once you sort through the details.
Notre Dame looks much stronger in the traditional polls, where the Fighting Irish are No. 4 in the AP Poll and No. 6 in the Coaches Poll. Those rankings paint a picture closer to a team that could be favored by more than a touchdown over the No. 1 team in the country.
Miami also has to deal with a major absence. Wide receiver Malachi Toney will miss Saturday’s game and additional regular-season contests after suffering an ankle injury in practice.
He had surgery and is expected back during the College Football Playoff. The Hurricanes have not played a game without Toney, who had been one of the Heisman Trophy favorites through the first eight games of the season, so there’s real uncertainty around how Miami will look without him.
Then there’s the setting. Notre Dame gets the home-field edge, and that matters here. If the game were in Miami, the Hurricanes would likely still be underdogs, just not by nearly this much.
The last time the No. 1 team was a 7-plus-point underdog came in 2014, when No. 1 Mississippi State closed as a 9-point underdog at No. 5 Alabama on Nov. 15, 2014, and lost 25-20.
So yes, Miami is staring at a historic kind of challenge. But the Hurricanes have already shown they can make history on the road.
In Other News...
Notre Dame Just Delivered The Statement Fans Have Been Waiting For
Notre Dame finally got the kind of win that can change the conversation around a season, knocking off No. 1 Miami 31-24 in a game that carried extra meaning as the program honored Lou Holtzs legacy. The Irish had the sort of balance that travels in November and beyond, with CJ Carr delivering a steady passing performance and Boubacar Traore making his presence felt on defense, even as penalties continued to create some unnecessary stress.
For a team trying to strengthen its College Football Playoff case, this was the kind of result that lands with both the committee and the fan base. It also came with an emotional layer that went beyond standings and rankings, given the tribute to Holtz after his recent passing, making the win feel like more than just another upset and leaving Notre Dame with a bigger stage to build on from here. [Read more 🡒]
BYUs Playoff Hope Now Hinges On One Big 12 Break
BYUs playoff path has become a lot more complicated after a weekend of shifting results around the country, and Notre Dame is right in the middle of the conversation by virtue of how the rankings are shaking out. The latest projections have the Irish positioned as one of the teams benefiting from the chaos, while the Cougars are left needing help from the Big 12 race to keep their case alive as the season moves toward its final stretch.
What makes the picture even tighter is that the playoff field is still being sorted through conference title scenarios and at-large debates involving several familiar names, from Miami and Georgia to Alabama, Texas and Boise State. BYUs hopes now depend on a conference outcome beyond its own control, and until that gets settled, the Irish can keep watching the bracket math with a little more comfort than the teams still waiting on a break. [Read more 🡒]
Notre Dame Suddenly Has Real Momentum On Multiple Fronts
Notre Dame is piling up good news in a hurry, and it is coming from more than one corner of the athletic department. The mens hockey team just left Penn State with a road sweep, following a 5-4 overtime win with a 4-2 finish, while the football program kept its own run going with a 31-24 victory over Miami. In that game, safety Luke Talich made his presence felt with a critical interception, another reminder that the Irish have been getting impact plays when they need them most.
The momentum did not stop there. Linebacker recruit Julian Bruno also committed to Notre Dames football program, adding another piece to a class that the staff is trying to keep moving forward. Miami coach Mario Cristobal took issue with an officiating call in the loss, but the result still stood, and for Notre Dame the bigger picture is hard to miss right now: wins on the ice, wins on the field, and recruiting news that fits the same upbeat stretch. [Read more 🡒]