The Week 9 board is loaded with ranked teams, and there are plenty of spots where the numbers point one way even if the spread says another. I’m putting my trust in Notre Dame to answer after the BYU loss, and I’m also backing Arizona State, Oklahoma State, Texas, Missouri, and Texas State against the number.
Notre Dame’s loss to BYU doesn’t wipe out what the metrics say about the Irish. They still sit second in net adjusted EPA per play and first in net success rate, and that’s enough for me to take them to rebound in a big way against Navy. The matchup also leans their direction: Navy’s offense is ranked 73rd in one metric and 47th in the other, while Notre Dame’s defense has the tools to handle the option look, ranking 16th in opponent EPA per rush and fourth in defensive rush success rate.
I’m not buying BYU as this large of a favorite over Arizona State. The Cougars deserve to be favored, but not by this much.
Arizona State may not be a playoff team, yet its defense has held up well enough to make this interesting, checking in at 37th in opponent EPA per play and 35th in defensive success rate. BYU’s offense is good, but the production numbers aren’t as loud as the ranking suggests, with the Cougars at 29th in EPA per play, 33rd in EPA per pass and 30th in EPA per rush.
I’ll grab the points with the Sun Devils.
Oklahoma State has the kind of passing game that can really stress Iowa State. Drew Mestemaker has helped fuel a Cowboys attack that ranks 14th nationally in both EPA per pass and pass success rate, and that’s a nightmare for an Iowa State secondary sitting 106th in opponent EPA per pass and 103rd in defensive pass success rate. That’s enough for me to lay the points with Oklahoma State.
Texas looks like another strong favorite. Mississippi State already had a tough road trying to move the ball against a Texas defense that leads the country in opponent-adjusted EPA per play, and now the Bulldogs are turning to a new quarterback.
On the other side, Texas hasn’t been perfect on offense, but Mississippi State’s defense has been even more vulnerable, ranking 105th in opponent success rate. I’m laying the points with the Longhorns.
Arkansas still doesn’t look like a team I want to back in this spot. Even after an SEC win two weeks ago, the Razorbacks are 103rd in net EPA per play and 116th in net success rate.
Missouri has been far better by comparison, sitting 26th and 49th in those same categories. The Tigers’ passing game has been effective, and Arkansas’ defense has been too easy to throw on, ranking 114th in success rate.
That’s enough for me to take Missouri.
Texas State is the last play, and I think the Bobcats can stay inside the number against Boise State. Their offense has been productive, ranking 42nd in adjusted EPA per play and 18th in offensive success rate, so there should be chances to score against a Broncos defense that ranks 89th in opponent EPA per rush.
Texas State’s secondary has issues, but the Bobcats are 33rd in opponent rush EPA, and that could matter most here because Boise State’s biggest weapon is the run game. If Texas State slows that down, it can cover.
In Other News...
Notre Dame Coaches Just Addressed A Frustrating WR Problem
Notre Dames receiver usage has become a talking point lately, and Marcus Freeman and Mike Brown didnt dodge it when asked about the limited wideout rotation. The coaches said the heavy workload for Jordan Faison, Micah Gilbert and Jaden Greathouse has come from a growing level of trust in those key players, which has helped explain why theyve been on the field so much in recent games.
At the same time, the staff knows the passing game works best when more options are available, and they acknowledged the need to get additional receivers involved moving forward. For Notre Dame, that means practice will matter as much as game day, with rotation chances expected to open up as more players continue to improve and earn trust. [Read more 🡒]
Notre Dame May Have Found The WR Boost Fans Needed
Jaden Greathouse has been one of the more encouraging storylines coming out of Notre Dames recent practices, and it is not hard to see why the coaching staff likes where his game is heading. After flashing in the Fighting Irishs win over BYU with eight catches for 125 yards, he spoke about the progress he has made in route running and competitiveness, two areas that can separate a solid receiver from one who changes what an offense can do.
For Notre Dame, the timing matters. The wide receiver room has been looking for someone to pair with Jordan Faison and help give the passing game a more dependable edge, and Greathouses growth has put him squarely in that conversation. His breakout against BYU stood out not just because of the production, but because it represented a major jump from what he had done before, leaving open the question of how quickly that momentum can carry into the rest of the season. [Read more 🡒]
Notre Dame Secondary Suddenly Faces Pressure At The Worst Time
Notre Dames secondary took a hit at a time when the margin for error is already thin, with Marcus Freeman confirming that defensive back DJ McKinney will miss an extended stretch because of injury. The good news, at least for later on, is that McKinney is expected back before the season is over, but the immediate picture is far less comforting for a defense trying to hold steady through the final weeks.
Jayden Sanders is set to slide into the field cornerback role while the Irish try to keep the rest of the back end intact, and the timing adds another layer of concern with Navy coming up next. Several Notre Dame players remain questionable for that game, which leaves Freeman and his staff managing availability as much as game planning. [Read more 🡒]