Playoff pressure is about to hit a boil in South Bend.
No. 11 Notre Dame will host No.
1 Miami on Saturday, Nov. 7 at Notre Dame Stadium, with kickoff set for 7:30 PM ET on NBC. The Irish enter at 7-1, while the Hurricanes come in unbeaten at 8-0.
The betting line has Notre Dame as a 7-point favorite, with the over/under at 54.5.
For Notre Dame, this is the kind of game that can reshape the whole conversation around its season. The Irish haven’t picked up a Top 5 regular-season win since Nov. 5, 2022, when they beat then-No.
4 Clemson. They also haven’t knocked off the No. 1 team since 2020, when they beat Clemson again.
That’s the backdrop for Marcus Freeman’s fifth season, and it makes this one feel bigger than just another rivalry game. The committee has the Irish at No. 11, which means a loss could send them tumbling out of the Top 12 altogether.
A win, though, would put Notre Dame in strong position for another playoff berth.
The Irish Breakdown staff leaned into that tension with a range of score predictions, but the common thread was clear: Notre Dame has to get a big performance from CJ Carr. The offense is expected to try to lean on the run, especially after what it showed against Navy, but Carr is still the engine that can swing this game.
Miami’s pass defense ranks 122nd, which opens the door for him to put together the kind of night Notre Dame needs. On the other side, the Irish defense has to find a way to slow a Miami offense that has been rolling, and that puts a spotlight on defensive coordinator Chris Ash.
One prediction had Notre Dame winning 38-35, with the idea that the Irish offense can build on its recent success and attack Miami through the air. That view also came with skepticism about whether Ash can get his unit ready for a game this large. If he does, the Irish could be in position to control the night.
Trevor Trowbridge also backed Notre Dame, 34-31, while noting how familiar this setup feels to the classic 1988 meeting with Miami. His view was that Notre Dame has the roster to win this game, but that the Irish have to let Mike Denbrock open up the offense. He pointed to CJ Carr taking advantage of Miami’s secondary and the defense making enough stops when it matters most.
Andrew McDonough went with Notre Dame 31-30, again drawing a line back to 1988 and saying the injuries on both sides make depth a major factor. Miami WR Malachi Toney’s injury is the headline, but Notre Dame is also dealing with multiple defensive starters out.
McDonough expects the Irish defense to make life harder on Miami’s rushing attack, especially after the Hurricanes have averaged 153.3 rushing YPG and 4.6 YPC in four road games, which is 50 total yards and almost a full yard less per carry than their season average. That would help force third-and-long situations, where the Irish could tilt the game.
Bryan Ault was the most cautious at first, saying he didn’t think Notre Dame had much of a chance until watching Miami against North Carolina. After seeing Bill Belichick’s Tar Heels push the Hurricanes to the brink, he believes the Irish can absolutely win - but only if several things fall into place. That means preparation like last season’s USC game, a defense that looks more like it did in the second half against Navy, early points from the offense, fewer penalties, fewer mistakes, and cleaner execution across the board.
However it plays out, this one has the feel of a real measuring-stick night for Notre Dame.
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Milano eventually drilled a $1 million kick on his second try, giving the crowd the kind of live-TV payoff that tends to linger long after the cameras move on. The day also had a charitable twist, with the Notre Dame leprechaun mascot Riley stepping in to nail a $500,000 kick, adding another layer to a scene that fit the pageantry and unpredictability of GameDay perfectly. [Read more 🡒]