Notre Dame’s path to the College Football Playoff keeps narrowing, and Paul Finebaum says the Irish have one last chance to make their case when No. 1 Miami comes to South Bend next Saturday.
Finebaum laid out his view Sunday on “The Matt Barrie Show” after Notre Dame’s 35-13 win over Navy, arguing the Irish need at least one win that carries real weight if they want to belong in the field.
“I would argue they have no business being in the playoff if you can’t win at least one important game,” the SEC Network host said.
He pointed to the Miami matchup as the biggest game left on Notre Dame’s schedule, calling it “the marquee game of the week, which is saying a great deal,” while also acknowledging that the debate around the Irish has become harder to sort out.
“And if they lose, I’ve already said it, and a lot of people have already said, that they’ll be left out, but that may be more difficult because of the absolute carnage,” Finebaum said.
That’s a softer position than the one he took after Notre Dame’s 28-24 loss at BYU on Oct. 17, when he said a Miami loss would be “monster news for everybody in college football.” Since then, the weekend chaos has only complicated the picture. Seven AP Top 25 teams lost on Halloween, giving new life to the idea that a 10-2 team could still have a path.
Miami, meanwhile, did not exactly make a clean statement in its latest win. The Hurricanes stayed unbeaten at 8-0 by edging North Carolina 38-35 and had to recover an onside kick in the final minute to finish it off. Finebaum took a shot at how close Miami keeps making things, joking that ACC commissioner Jim Phillips might have a message for Mario Cristobal.
“It looks like Miami is just sleepwalking because it looks like Jim Phillips, the commissioner of the ACC, said to Cristobal, ‘We know you’re the best team, but please make the rest of our league look better by keeping these games close,’” Finebaum said.
Notre Dame’s résumé has taken some hits of its own, even as the Irish keep winning. Their best victory remains the 41-13 Week 1 rout of Wisconsin at Lambeau Field, but that result looks less impressive now after the Badgers fell 30-0 at Iowa on Saturday for their fifth straight loss in the series.
SMU also took a step backward, which matters because the Mustangs visit South Bend on Nov. 21.
No. 19 SMU lost 30-27 at Syracuse on a late touchdown from Steve Angeli to Noah Meyers with 17 seconds left, shrinking the value of that game for Notre Dame’s resume.
“Notre Dame’s biggest win this year is Wisconsin,” host Matt Barrie said.
Barrie also noted that the Irish may still have enough to get in if they finish 10-2, even without a signature win over Miami.
“Now, if they finish 10-2, I ultimately believe they’re going to be in because of everything falling around them,” Barrie said. “But that’s one of the interesting test cases this season because we think Notre Dame is good. Do we know how good?”
Notre Dame does have one thing it didn’t have last year: a safety net. Under a memorandum of understanding with the College Football Playoff, the Irish are guaranteed a spot if they are ranked in the top 12 of the final rankings.
Still, another loss to Miami would put Notre Dame back in a familiar and uncomfortable spot. The source article notes that Notre Dame finished 10-2 in 2025 and was the first team out at No. 11 after Miami’s 27-24 head-to-head win helped the Hurricanes land the final at-large bid.
For now, Marcus Freeman’s team is trying to steady itself after showing some cracks against Navy. The Irish were down 13-7 late in the second quarter before pulling away, and Freeman said he told his staff not to let the moment get away from them.
“Don’t panic. That’s what outside noise and voices try to get you to do is panic,” Freeman said.
The first College Football Playoff rankings come out Tuesday at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN, and the showdown between Miami and Notre Dame is set for Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC and Peacock.
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Notre Dames season opened in memorable fashion in Rome, where the Irish edged Villanova 74-72 and got an early look at how their new pieces might fit together. Shrewsberry led the way with 15 points, Koehler added 16 points and made key defensive plays, and the game had the feel of a showcase from the start, with the Irish already drawing attention for how they handled a high-level opponent on a stage far from South Bend.
The biggest spotlight, though, landed on freshman Luigi Suigo, whose college debut came with plenty of eyes on him because of his NBA draft potential. He finished with seven points, a modest start by the box score but still a meaningful first step for a player viewed as a possible first-round pick. Villanovas Perkins scored 18 points in the loss, but for Notre Dame, the opener was as much about seeing how Suigo settles in as it was about starting the year with a win. [Read more 🡒]
Notre Dame Gets A Real Opening Against No. 1 Miami
Miamis defense is under the microscope heading into a trip to South Bend, and Mario Cristobal made it clear the Hurricanes know why. After a shaky showing against North Carolina, he pointed to tackling and finishing plays as issues that have to be cleaned up fast, especially with Notre Dame waiting and a quarterback in CJ Carr who can make defenses pay when they lose contain.
For the Irish, that kind of self-scout from the No. 1 team is exactly the opening this matchup seemed to promise. South Bend will get a heavyweight game with real stakes, and Notre Dames offense now has a chance to test a Miami defense that is being asked to sharpen its execution and communication in a hurry. [Read more 🡒]
Notre Dame Defense Is Running Thin At The Worst Possible Time
Notre Dames defense took another hit in the Navy game, and the timing could hardly be worse with Miami looming. Linebacker Drayk Bowen and defensive tackles Jason Onye and Francis Brewu were among the players injured, adding to a unit that has already been stretched by earlier setbacks this season.
The Irish have not offered specific recovery timelines, leaving their status for the Miami matchup uncertain and the depth chart in a familiar state of flux. For a defense already trying to patch together answers, every new injury narrows the margin for error and makes the next week feel even more important. [Read more 🡒]