Saturday night in Provo gives college football one of its cleanest matchup tests of the season: undefeated Notre Dame against undefeated BYU, with the winner gaining ground in the College Football Playoff race and the loser sliding backward.
Notre Dame arrives ranked No. 2 and is taking on its first true road test of the year. BYU, ranked No. 8, gets the home stage with College GameDay in town. That setup alone makes this a heavyweight spot, but the Irish have looked every bit like a team built for this kind of game.
They have won every contest by double digits, and their defense has been suffocating. Notre Dame is giving up just 11 points per game and ranks No. 1 nationally in total defense, allowing only 241 yards per outing. That’s the kind of profile that travels, especially when the offense is producing enough to control a game on its own.
CJ Carr has been sharp and efficient at quarterback, completing more than 70 percent of his passes while throwing 16 touchdowns against just one interception. Notre Dame is scoring more than 40 points per game and sits near the top of the country in almost every efficiency category.
The one area that has slipped a bit is the run game, which was among the nation’s best last season but now ranks No. 38 in yards per carry. Still, the Irish have not faced a run defense like BYU’s yet.
The Cougars are unbeaten for a reason. They play physical football, defend well, and have stayed balanced enough to keep teams from settling in.
BYU is allowing 13.4 points per game and has not given up more than 23 in any game. The challenge now is whether the offense can do enough against Notre Dame’s defense to stay in range.
That burden has fallen more heavily on Bear Bachmeier since star running back LJ Martin went down with an injury. BYU’s passing game has been one of the least productive in college football, so Bachmeier has had to pick up the rushing slack and keep the offense moving. He did exactly that last week against Iowa State, throwing for over 300 yards and running for more than 100.
There is also the reality of where this game is being played. BYU’s home crowd and elevation make Provo a difficult place to operate, and the Cougars have covered the spread in every game this season. That matters when a top-tier opponent comes into town.
Even so, the critical battle looks straightforward: the trenches. Notre Dame’s front seven should be in position to slow BYU’s ground game without Martin and make Bachmeier win more with his arm. The Irish have been stingy against the run and strong in pass defense as well, giving them the kind of balance that can squeeze an opponent from both directions.
On the other side, BYU’s defense will try to get after Carr and force mistakes, though few teams have been able to create those kinds of problems for him this season.
Notre Dame has the more complete roster and the bigger edge in proven talent, and that usually shows up late. BYU should make this a fight early and give the night some tension, but over four quarters, asking the Cougars to keep matching the Irish drive for drive looks like too much.
Notre Dame should survive the trip and stay unbeaten.
The Big Lead Prediction: Notre Dame 31, BYU 17
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