Miami may have climbed to No. 1 in the latest college football rankings, but the projected playoff picture points to a different team holding the edge when the committee starts sorting things out.
Through the first half of the 2026 season, the bracketology has Georgia sitting in the strongest position. The Bulldogs are still viewed as the most complete team in the country, even with the loss to Auburn. That setback is framed less as a sign of deeper problems and more as the byproduct of fatigue after beating Alabama.
The ACC race still has some runway, with Notre Dame looming in three weeks, but the selection committee is expected to favor the SEC champion’s path over what Miami has done so far. That’s part of why the current projection gives the Bulldogs the No. 1 spot.
The Big Ten picture is just as volatile. Indiana was a whisker away from beating Ohio State, and now the Buckeyes are dealing with a major injury issue that could open the door for Curt Cignetti’s team to grab control of the conference. Ohio State is still projected as the Big Ten runner-up, but there’s a real question hanging over the offense if Julian Sayin can’t play.
Jeremiah Smith remains one of the biggest weapons in the sport, maybe even the best wideout to ever wear an Ohio State uniform, but the issue is obvious: who is getting him the ball? Without Sayin, the talent edge still exists, but the Buckeyes would be taking a significant hit offensively.
Texas Tech is in a strong spot in the Big 12 race, even with BYU and Utah in the mix. The Red Raiders have the friendlier schedule and are projected to use it to reach - and win - the conference title game.
BYU sits in the runner-up slot after the road win over Notre Dame, but the Cougars still have to go to Utah, and any stumble there could open the door for the Utes. Utah’s own path could sharpen even more if it beats ranked Houston on Saturday.
The SEC runner-up position is still in flux, but Ole Miss is making a push to get ahead of now two-loss Alabama. A home date with Georgia in a couple of weeks is going to matter a lot in the eyes of the selectors, and it’s one of the games that will help sort out the conference hierarchy.
Tennessee also has a case in the at-large race. The Vols have one of the best wins in the country after beating Alabama, and doing it while holding the Crimson Tide to 10 points only strengthens that argument. Tennessee can run the ball well, but the biggest question still comes down to whether the quarterback play can rise to the level of the rest of the roster.
UCLA is another at-large team in the current forecast, and the Bruins haven’t let Nico Iamaleava’s absence stop the offense yet. The gritty win at Wisconsin kept them in position to potentially run the table, or at worst drop one game against a soft schedule. USC is the main challenge left.
Notre Dame, meanwhile, stays in the playoff mix despite not having a marquee win to hang its hat on just yet. The Irish needed the road win over BYU, and the projection has them losing at home to Miami. Even so, staying in the top dozen is enough to keep them inside the playoff bracket thanks to the deal they have with the playoff selectors.
Kansas State is also in the at-large conversation after wins over LSU and Oklahoma. The Wildcats are tied for first in the SEC and got four takeaways from the Sooners on the road last weekend. Their upcoming games at Tennessee, at home against Florida, and at Missouri will go a long way toward defining what kind of team they really are.
The Group of Six spot looked like it was headed to James Madison after its 7-0 start, but Thursday’s surprise loss to Appalachian State changed that quickly and dealt a major blow to the Dukes’ playoff hopes.
That opens the door back up for Boise State. The Broncos are still rolling in the Pac-12, own one of the 10 best rushing attacks in college football, and are only a touchdown loss at Oregon away from being unbeaten.
In Other News...
Former Irish Star Cole Kmet Now Faces A Frightening Bears Concern
Cole Kmets afternoon against the Patriots turned into a sobering scene for Bears fans and anyone who followed his career at Notre Dame. After an 8-yard reception, the tight end went down with a non-contact knee injury and had to be carted off the field, an especially alarming development for a player whose durability has long been part of his value in Chicago.
The Bears ruled Kmet out for the rest of the game, and head coach Ben Johnsons early read on the situation was not encouraging. Quarterback Caleb Williams also showed immediate concern for his teammate, underscoring how quickly the tone around the injury shifted from routine to potentially serious. For Notre Dame supporters keeping tabs on one of the programs most prominent alumni, it was the kind of update nobody wanted to see. [Read more 🡒]
Notre Dame's Biggest Offensive Debate Is Back After The BYU Loss
Notre Dame left Provo with the same familiar problem hanging over its offense: moving the ball has not been the issue nearly as much as finishing drives. The loss to BYU put the red zone debate right back at the center of the conversation, with the Irish again looking too limited once the field shrinks and every call matters a little more.
Mike Denbrock has options to work with, but the current approach has not made enough use of the tight ends or the back of the end zone, two areas that should help an offense built to create matchup problems. With conference play and bigger moments ahead, the pressure now is on Notre Dame to show schematic answers instead of more of the same. [Read more 🡒]
Notre Dame Has A Pass Rush Problem It Can't Ignore
Notre Dames defense has hit a stretch where the pass rush has become impossible to overlook. After letting North Carolina and BYU put up more points than the Irish would like, the conversation around the unit has turned to whether the front is affecting enough plays or simply chasing them. Defensive coordinator Chris Ash has taken heat for leaning on more passive looks, especially at a time when the Irish could use a little more chaos from the second level.
Boubacar Traore and Bryce Young have flashed the kind of pressure production that should matter, but it has not translated consistently into recent games. That leaves Notre Dame with a familiar tension on defense: the talent is there in spots, but the scheme has not fully weaponized it. Until the Irish find a way to generate more disruption without waiting for it to happen naturally, every opponent is going to keep testing that edge. [Read more 🡒]