No. 11 Notre Dame and No. 1 Miami are set for a Saturday night collision in South Bend, and the stakes are as clear as they get: the College Football Playoff picture could tilt hard depending on what happens at Notre Dame Stadium.
For Marcus Freeman, this is the kind of stage that can define a season. The matchup carries the highest AP ranking between these two programs since the famous Catholics vs.
Convicts meeting in 1988, when Notre Dame went on to win the national championship. It’s also a rematch of last season’s opener, when Miami edged the Irish 27-24.
The committee watched that one closely, too - Notre Dame stayed ahead of Miami in five CFP rankings before the Hurricanes jumped them in the final week.
This time, the committee has Notre Dame sitting at No. 11, seven spots below its AP ranking, and right on the edge of the playoff field. Hunter Yurachek made the situation plain on ESPN Tuesday night: “They don’t have that signature win right now,” CFP committee chair Hunter Yurachek said Tuesday night on ESPN. “They’ve got a great opportunity in front of them at home versus Miami to get that signature win that I think they need to move up in the rankings.”
Both teams bring major personnel questions into the game.
Miami will be without Malachi Toney, who injured his ankle in practice Wednesday and will have surgery with hopes of returning for the CFP. That’s a massive hit.
The sophomore is among the national leaders in receptions with 73, receiving yards per game at 128.4 and receiving touchdowns with 13, which also matches Miami’s single-season school record. Cooper Barkate is next up on the depth chart, but his 46.5 receiving yards per game don’t come close to Toney’s production.
Notre Dame has its own blow on defense. Drayk Bowen, the team’s leading tackler with 45 and the player wearing the green-dot helmet to relay calls, is out with an ankle injury he suffered against Navy. That leaves the Irish trying to slow Darian Mensah without their defensive leader on the field.
Mensah has been one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the country all season. He leads the FBS in completion percentage at 80.7 and pass efficiency at 202.7, and he is tied for the national lead with 25 touchdown passes against just one interception. Notre Dame will have to deal with that production while adjusting to Bowen’s absence.
The Irish also need a cleaner showing from CJ Carr against a ranked opponent. Carr has been excellent overall, with 18 touchdown passes and one interception, and he is 15-0 as a starter against unranked teams.
But the numbers shift against AP-ranked opponents: he is 2-3, has completed 60.9% of his throws, averaged 6.6 yards per attempt and thrown six touchdowns against five interceptions. With only unranked Boston College, SMU and Syracuse left on the schedule, this is one of the few chances he has to make a real impression on the committee.
Notre Dame’s home history in this series is also impossible to ignore. The Irish are 10-1 at home against Miami, and the home team has taken the last eight on-campus meetings.
Miami’s only win at Notre Dame Stadium came back in 1984. The Hurricanes, meanwhile, are 18-3 on the road as the AP No. 1, but all three losses came against ranked teams, including the 1988 loss to Notre Dame.
They have not beaten an AP top-five team on the road since 2005.
There are also some telling team-wide contrasts. Notre Dame has been the most disciplined team in the FBS, averaging just 28.9 penalty yards per game, while Miami ranks 82nd at 58.8.
But the Irish defense has struggled badly in the red zone, ranking 108th and allowing points on 88.9% of possessions. Miami scores on 92.9% of its red-zone trips.
Notre Dame opened as a 4.5-point favorite and has been bet up to 5.5, with the total at 57.5. The setup points toward a close one, even with Toney out.
Notre Dame can win the game, but covering a number that large is a tougher ask. The pick here is Miami +5.5.
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For Notre Dame, the intrigue is obvious because Carrs progress is not just about draft boards, it is about what kind of quarterback the Irish may have on their hands in the seasons ahead. The broader class still comes with plenty of uncertainty, from who will declare to who will stay in school, but Carrs place in the conversation is enough to make 2027 feel like more than a distant calendar date in South Bend. [Read more 🡒]
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Notre Dame Defense Faces Its Toughest Test Without Its On-Field Leader
Notre Dames defense is heading into its biggest challenge of the season with a major piece missing, as senior captain and middle linebacker Drayk Bowen will sit out against No. 1 Miami because of a lower body injury. Bowen has been the on-field leader of the unit, so his absence shifts both the structure and the voice of a defense that has already had to navigate a string of injuries this season.
Senior linebacker Jaiden Ausberry is expected to shoulder more of the communication and leadership load in Bowens place, a significant responsibility in a matchup that will demand sharp alignment and quick adjustments. For a defense that has leaned on depth and experience all year, this is the kind of test that can expose every weakness, especially against an opponent with the speed and firepower Miami brings into the game. [Read more 🡒]