Notre Dame’s 2026 Title Hopes: CFP-Bound, But Are They Battle-Tested Enough?
The College Football Playoff picture is still months away from locking in, but the expectations in South Bend are already sky-high. Notre Dame is projected to be a major player in the 2026 national title race-no surprise there.
The Irish have the talent, the coaching, and the motivation after last year’s playoff snub. But not everyone’s convinced they’ll go the distance.
CBS Sports recently rolled out a series of bold predictions for every team in the Top 25, and when it came to Notre Dame, the take was a bit of a curveball. While the Irish are expected to make the playoff field, analyst Cody Nagel doesn’t see them surviving past the quarterfinals.
Let’s unpack why.
A CFP Berth, But With a Catch
Brad Crawford of CBS Sports has Notre Dame penciled in as the No. 2 seed in his way-too-early CFP bracket for 2026. That would give the Irish a first-round bye under the expanded playoff format, putting them just one win away from the semifinals.
On paper, that’s a dream scenario. But it also comes with a risk: rust.
Crawford and Nagel both point to Notre Dame’s regular-season slate as a potential issue-not because it’s weak, but because it might not offer the kind of week-to-week grind that sharpens a team for the postseason. Add in a long layoff of more than 30 days between the end of the regular season and the quarterfinal matchup, and you’ve got a recipe for a slow start when it matters most.
That’s the heart of Nagel’s prediction: Notre Dame will make the playoff, but the combination of a softer schedule and extended downtime could leave them flat-footed in the quarterfinals.
The “Unfinished Business” Factor
But here’s where things get interesting. This Notre Dame team isn’t just talented-they’re motivated. After being left out of the 2025 playoff field, Marcus Freeman and his staff have made it clear: this season is about redemption.
That kind of chip-on-the-shoulder energy can’t be measured in strength-of-schedule metrics. It’s the kind of intangible that has fueled championship runs in the past.
Freeman has been building this program with a clear vision, and the players have bought in. They’re not just trying to make the playoff-they’re aiming to finish the job.
Schedule Still Has Teeth
While the Irish might not face a gauntlet every week, it’s not exactly a cakewalk either. Matchups like Miami are circled on the calendar for a reason. Those are the kinds of games that keep a team sharp and expose any weaknesses before the lights get brighter in December.
No, this isn’t the toughest slate Notre Dame has ever faced, but it’s enough to keep them honest. And for a team with this much experience and depth, that might be all they need.
The Bottom Line
The bold prediction from CBS Sports is a fair one-Notre Dame hasn’t always delivered in the postseason, and the new playoff format introduces variables we haven’t seen before. But dismissing this team’s chances outright? That might be a little premature.
With a top-two seed in sight, a focused locker room, and a head coach who’s made it his mission to get over the CFP hump, Notre Dame has more than enough firepower to make a serious run. Whether they capitalize on it will come down to preparation, execution, and how well they handle the moment when it arrives.
One thing’s for sure: the Irish are going to be in the mix. And if they’re clicking when the quarterfinals roll around, they’re not going to be an easy out for anyone.