Notre Dame’s trip to No. 1 Miami on Saturday carries more than just the weight of a top-five matchup. According to ESPN’s Rece Davis, it could also reopen the same College Football Playoff headache that ended the Irish’s 2025 season.
Davis laid out the concern on ESPN’s College GameDay Podcast with Pete Thamel and Dan Wetzel, saying the No. 4 Fighting Irish (7-1) would be in “very much the same situation as a year ago” if they lose.
The numbers help explain why the conversation could get messy. ESPN’s Football Power Index, a forward-looking metric, has Notre Dame at No.
- Miami is No. 1 in strength of record, which measures what a team has actually done against its schedule.
Davis said that split is going to fuel the debate around the Irish if they come up short.
“I think Notre Dame will still be OK absent getting run out of the stadium, which I cannot conceive of happening,” Davis said. “So it’s going to be a little bit different than last year, but the argument, the discussion, is going to be the same if they don’t win this game.”
He also pointed to the part of the resume that tends to matter most when the committee starts sorting through teams.
“When you get down to who did you play and who did you beat, especially the who did you beat portion of who did you play, they won’t have much on the paper.”
That’s the issue for Notre Dame. The Irish have faced only one opponent ranked at kickoff this season, and that came in a 28-24 loss at BYU on Oct.
- None of their seven victories has come against a team in this week’s AP Top 25.
Their wins have come against Wisconsin, Rice, Michigan State, Purdue, North Carolina, Stanford and Navy. After Miami, the schedule closes with Boston College, SMU and Syracuse, a trio that is a combined 14-10 and unranked.
There is one major difference from last year’s playoff debate: Notre Dame now has a safety net it didn’t have before. The College Football Playoff guarantees the Irish a spot if they finish in the top 12 of the final rankings. Still, a loss to Miami would leave them at 7-2 with no ranked wins and no ranked opponents left ahead.
That’s what makes this game so important. Last season, Miami and Notre Dame both finished 10-2, and the committee gave the Hurricanes the final at-large spot after Miami’s 27-24 win in Week 1. Notre Dame was left out and declined a bowl invitation.
At the time, athletic director Pete Bevacqua said, “We feel like the playoff was stolen from our student-athletes.” Davis called this year’s rematch “another little delicious subplot” and added that Notre Dame’s frustration “wasn’t necessarily just directed at Miami.”
Marcus Freeman responded to that disappointment by making “leave no doubt” the program’s mantra for 2026. Saturday gives the Irish a chance to back that up against an 8-0 Miami team that leads FBS with 47.6 points per game, while Notre Dame’s defense sits atop FBS at 236.1 yards allowed per game.
The first College Football Playoff rankings of the season are set to be released Tuesday at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Miami and Notre Dame will meet Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC and Peacock.
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For the Irish, the visit matters because it gives them another chance to make a late impression on one of the top defensive prospects in the class. No new decision has been made, and Hendersons recruitment is expected to keep unfolding all the way to Signing Day in December, which leaves Notre Dame with a real opening if the weekend goes well. [Read more 🡒]