James Madison’s Playoff Shot Is More Than a Game-It’s a Goodbye
This weekend, James Madison walks into Autzen Stadium as a 21-point underdog against Oregon. But the real opponent isn’t just the Ducks. It’s the ticking clock on a playoff format that’s about to disappear forever.
The Dukes and Tulane are the last of their kind-Group of Five programs with a legitimate path to the College Football Playoff under the current system. That window slams shut in just a few weeks.
Back in the spring of 2024, a new postseason agreement was signed that fundamentally reshaped the playoff landscape. Starting next season, automatic bids will go to the four remaining power conference champions, plus just one Group of Five team.
That’s it. No more room for two Cinderella stories.
No more dual underdog runs. The door is closing, and it’s closing fast.
This year’s setup-which ranks all conference champs and grants spots to the top five-is the only reason James Madison and Tulane are still standing. Under next year’s rules, James Madison would be out.
Duke, despite finishing 8-5, would be in. And Miami?
Gone too, thanks to a quiet clause Notre Dame negotiated that guarantees the Irish a spot if they finish in the top 12. It’s a sharp reminder that in this new era, playoff access is less about performance and more about politics.
The controversy is already heating up. A mock bracket floated earlier this week featured Indiana, Ohio State, Georgia, and Texas Tech with byes.
Notre Dame at Ole Miss. Alabama at Oklahoma.
It’s a lineup heavy on brand names, light on merit. That sparked a back-and-forth between voices in the college football world-some defending the entertainment value, others calling out the shift away from earned opportunity.
This isn’t just debate for debate’s sake. The Big Ten and SEC pushed this deal through last spring, threatening to break away and form their own postseason if they didn’t get their way.
The result? They walked away with 58% of the revenue and full control over the format.
Group of Five conferences were given a choice: sign the deal or risk being left out entirely.
So here we are. James Madison, a 12-1 team in just its fourth year at the FBS level, is preparing for what could be its only shot at playoff glory.
Head coach Bob Chesney, who’s off to UCLA after this run, is coaching his final game with a program that caught fire at exactly the right moment. It’s a remarkable rise-and one that may never be repeated under the new rules.
Safety Jacob Thomas isn’t interested in apologies or asterisks. “We made it to this position because we earned it,” he said.
And he’s not wrong. James Madison didn’t back into this playoff.
They fought for it. They earned it.
And they’re showing up.
Tulane, too, is seeing the impact of this rare access. Donations surged 373% between mid-November and mid-December compared to last year.
James Madison sold all 3,500 of its tickets for the trip to Eugene, Oregon-no small feat for a cross-country flight in December. That’s what playoff access does for programs that operate on a fraction of the budget and brand recognition of the powerhouses.
But that kind of access is exactly what’s being taken away. Starting next season, there’s only one ticket to the dance for schools like JMU and Tulane. And if they don’t grab it, they’re out-no matter how good the record, no matter how compelling the story.
Oregon will be a tough out. Quarterback Dante Moore has racked up 24 touchdowns to just six interceptions.
James Madison’s Alonza Barnett III has been electric in his own right, with 21 passing touchdowns and 14 more on the ground. Both teams have one loss-Oregon to Indiana, JMU to Louisville-and both earned their way into this moment.
But for James Madison, this is more than a game. It’s a farewell.
A final chance to prove that programs outside the power structure can compete on the biggest stage. And for Chesney, it’s the end of an era.
His successor, Billy Napier, will inherit a program with momentum-but also a brutal reality. The system that gave the Dukes a shot this year won’t exist when he takes over.
This weekend isn’t just about football. It’s about what college football used to be-and what it’s becoming.
For James Madison, it’s a playoff game. For the rest of us, it’s the funeral for a format that once believed every team had a chance.