Texas is still sitting at the top in most college football rankings, but ESPN’s College Football Power Index just threw a wrench into the conversation.
The model has Georgia at No. 1 in its latest update, pushing Texas down to No. 4.
Ohio State checks in at No. 2, Notre Dame sits third, and Miami completes the top five.
That shift comes with Texas idle this week, while Georgia made the biggest statement in the model’s eyes with a 41-13 win over Oklahoma. Texas’ tighter road win at Tennessee and Ohio State’s blowout of Illinois kept both teams in the mix, but not enough to stay ahead of the Bulldogs in the computer’s view.
The Longhorns also finished behind Ohio State even though Texas beat the Buckeyes head-to-head.
FPI is built to project what teams will do going forward, not just reward what they’ve already done. It uses expected points added on offense, defense and special teams, then adjusts for opponent quality before running 20,000 simulations of the rest of the schedule to forecast wins, playoff chances and title odds.
That’s why Georgia has climbed to the top. Through four games, the Bulldogs have looked like the most complete team in the country, pairing an efficient offense with a defense that has been stifling against the competition.
Notre Dame has also stayed well ahead in the model. The Irish are second nationally behind Georgia and carry a 34 point per game winning margin on average, which has helped separate them from Texas and Ohio State.
Human polls still have Texas at No. 1, and that reflects the Longhorns’ résumé and signature wins. But the ESPN model is putting more weight on efficiency, future projection and overall profile, and right now it likes Georgia best.
In Other News...
Notre Dame Stayed At No. 3 But A Bigger Concern Is Growing
Notre Dame handled North Carolina 37-26 and kept rolling in the polls, staying at No. 3 in both the AP and Coaches rankings for a fifth straight week. The win also pushed the Irish to 22-2 all time against the Tar Heels, another reminder that the program has usually taken care of business in this matchup even when the game has not always looked clean.
The bigger issue is what comes next, because the ranking steadiness has not quieted the questions around a team that still has to sharpen up before the end of the regular season. With college football around it shifting in the standings and Stanford up next, Notre Dames margin for error is getting thinner, and the next stretch will say a lot more about its national standing than the poll number did this week. [Read more 🡒]
Notre Dame Had To Earn This One Against Bill Belichick
Bill Belichicks postgame takeaway from North Carolinas 37-26 loss at No. 3 Notre Dame was familiar to anyone who watched it unfold: the Tar Heels were competitive, but they left too much on the field. Notre Dame still had to grind for this one, leaning on a strong rushing attack while quarterback CJ Carr helped steady things for the Irish in a game that stayed uncomfortable longer than the home side probably wanted.
Billy Edwards Jr. gave North Carolina enough offense to keep the pressure on, throwing three touchdown passes in defeat, and that was part of what made this one feel more like a test than a stroll. For Notre Dame, the result matters more than the style points, but it also served as a reminder that even against a team coming in under Belichick, nothing is getting handed over in South Bend. [Read more 🡒]
Notre Dame Defense Just Got The Wake-Up Call Fans Feared
Notre Dames defense came out of its 37-26 win over North Carolina with plenty to unpack, and not all of it was comfortable. The unit gave up three long touchdown drives, even as it also produced stretches that looked like the kind of disruptive football the Irish have been trying to build around. On the other six Tar Heel possessions, Notre Dame held firm, limiting North Carolina to 41 yards and forcing two interceptions.
Senior safety Luke Talich was right in the middle of it, making an interception and blocking an extra point while playing with a wrist brace. Defensive coordinator Chris Ash still had execution issues to sort through afterward, and the bigger takeaway was less about celebration than correction. For a defense heading into a tougher stretch, the game looked like a reminder that the floor is higher when the unit is focused, but the margin for error is still too thin to ignore. [Read more 🡒]