Halfway through the college football regular season, ESPN’s FPI has drawn a pretty clear line at the top of the national title race. The math model doesn’t just like a handful of contenders - it sees Notre Dame and Georgia standing apart from the field.
Notre Dame has moved to No. 1 in the FPI rankings, and the Irish are given a 44.7% chance to run the table in the regular season. Because they are an independent, they do not have to deal with a conference championship game, which leaves them in position to lock up a top-four CFP spot and a first-round bye if they keep winning. ESPN’s forecast gives Notre Dame a 32.1% chance to reach the CFP title game and an 18.4% chance to win it.
Georgia sits right behind Notre Dame in the FPI ratings at No. 2, and the Bulldogs are also unbeaten at 6-0. FPI is even a little more bullish on Georgia’s chances of finishing 12-0 in the regular season, putting that at 46.4%.
The SEC, though, adds a final hurdle. Georgia would still have to win the conference title game, and FPI gives the Bulldogs a 54.3% shot at doing that, with Alabama and Texas listed as the most likely opponents.
Even with that extra step, Georgia is projected at 32.2% to make the national championship game and 17.8% to win the title.
If those paths hold, it would set up another postseason meeting between two programs that already know each other well. Notre Dame beat Georgia 23-10 in a CFP quarterfinal in New Orleans after the 2024 regular season.
Georgia’s signature win in the matchup came in the Sugar Bowl on January 1, 1981, when the Bulldogs beat Notre Dame 17-10 to clinch the 1980 national title. Georgia leads the all-time series 3-1.
FPI’s numbers are never short on debate, and that remains true here. The system can look past head-to-head results and leans heavily on margin of victory, which helps explain why LSU and Oregon, despite two losses, remain in the national top 10.
It also explains some of the stranger placements elsewhere: 5-0 UCLA is No. 36, while 5-1 Kentucky, fresh off its win over LSU, is No. 30.
Still, the broader title-game pool ESPN sees is fairly narrow. The seven teams with better than a 5.8% chance of reaching the CFP championship game come from the SEC, Big Ten, ACC and Independence only.
Miami has a huge FPI edge over the rest of the ACC, Notre Dame sits at the top overall, and Texas Tech leads the Big 12 with that 5.8% chance of making the title game. Georgia, Alabama and Texas represent the SEC, while Ohio State and Indiana are the Big Ten teams in the mix.
For now, though, FPI’s clearest message is simple: Notre Dame and Georgia have separated themselves from everyone else.
In Other News...
Notre Dame Defense Faces One Big Question Entering BYU Trip
Notre Dames defense could look a little different for its trip to BYU, with the injury report offering a mix of concern and relief heading into the matchup. Cornerback Leonard Moore is listed as questionable, while linebacker Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa has been cleared after being taken off the report, a useful development for a unit that has had to manage its depth carefully in recent weeks.
Jason Onyes status is also worth watching after he was upgraded to questionable following a left ankle injury that kept him out for more than five games. Brauntae Johnson, meanwhile, remains on a longer recovery path after foot surgery and is expected back around November, leaving Notre Dame to sort through just how much of its defensive backfield and front it can count on in a tricky road spot. [Read more 🡒]
Notre Dame Faces A Road Test Marcus Freeman Still Has To Pass
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For Freeman, this is more than another ranked matchup on the schedule. It is a chance to show that Notre Dame can carry its talent, poise and playoff hopes into a hostile road environment and actually finish the job. The Irish have been good enough at home and strong enough overall to stay in the national picture, but until they solve a test like this one, the lingering doubt about their ceiling will keep hanging over them. [Read more 🡒]
BYUs Undefeated Start Faces Its Biggest Test Yet Against Notre Dame
The No. 2 Fighting Irish are headed into a Week 7 matchup that should say plenty about where both programs really stand, with undefeated BYU bringing its perfect start into South Bend for a top-10 clash. Notre Dame has looked like a legitimate heavyweight by the advanced numbers, and CJ Carr has already pushed himself into the Heisman Trophy conversation as the offense continues to gain national attention.
BYU, ranked No. 8, has earned this moment by staying unbeaten and steady through the first part of the season, but this trip will demand answers in every phase against a Notre Dame team built to test weaknesses. The betting market expects a tight one, which only adds to the stakes in a game that could reshape the picture for both teams in the second half of the season. [Read more 🡒]