CJ Carr is still in the thick of the NFL Draft quarterback conversation, but his rough day against BYU clearly changed the temperature around his stock.
The Notre Dame quarterback remains viewed as one of the top passers in next spring’s class, yet a recent poll of NFL scouts and executives showed him slipping behind Oklahoma State’s Drew Mestemaker in the race to be the first quarterback selected. The update came Saturday morning on ESPN’s College GameDay, where insider Pete Thamel shared the latest results from a survey of 25 NFL scouts and executives.
The numbers told the story. Mestemaker pulled in 17 of the 25 votes, the strongest showing any quarterback has had in the three years Thamel has run the poll. Carr finished second with four votes.
That’s still a strong position for Carr, especially with Miami quarterback Darian Mensah also in the mix after a big season. But the poll made one thing obvious: Mestemaker has separated himself from the pack.
Thamel said, "I re-polled the 25 scouts and executives, we have a new clear-cut leader for QB1. And that's Oklahoma State quarterback Drew Mestemaker.
He received 17 of the 25 votes in the QB1 poll. In the three years we've done this, guys, that's the most a single quarterback has received in the poll," Thamel explained during the report.
The biggest shift from earlier in the year involved Dante Moore. Oregon announced this week that Moore is done for the season after suffering a concussion against USC.
He had been the favorite when Thamel first ran the poll in August, drawing 14 votes to Arch Manning’s seven. Now neither quarterback sits in the top four.
For Carr, the dip traces back to Notre Dame’s 28-24 loss to BYU two weeks ago. He completed 27 of 49 passes and didn’t throw a touchdown, a line that took some shine off what had been a strong start to the year.
Mestemaker’s rise has its own storyline. His path to the top of the poll has been anything but conventional, with Thamel noting that he didn’t start for his varsity high school team and later walked on at North Texas.
Carr still has chances to reshape the conversation. A strong showing against Navy could help, and Notre Dame will need him at his best against Miami on November 7. If he delivers there, he could push himself back into the discussion for the No. 1 quarterback spot in the 2027 NFL Draft.
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