Saturday night brings a clean, high-stakes showdown: two unbeaten teams, both carrying College Football Playoff hopes, both looking at the same game as a résumé builder. Notre Dame and BYU don’t just have perfection on the line.
They also have the chance to stack a valuable win in front of the selection committee. The flip side is just as real - a loss would leave either team with less room to work with the rest of the way.
This one is also being viewed as tighter than a lot of people might assume. The advanced numbers point toward a competitive game, not a runaway.
SP+ has Notre Dame in front, but only barely. The model gives the Irish a 60 percent chance to win and projects them as four-point favorites in a 28-24 game. That line reflects Notre Dame’s overall edge while also accounting for the challenge of playing at elevation in the hostile setting of LaVell Edwards Stadium.
The Irish have been clean and consistent through six games. They are 6-0, and every win has come by double digits. On defense, they’ve been stingy, allowing about 11 points per game and ranking first nationally in total defense.
Offensively, CJ Carr has been sharp. He has completed more than 70 percent of his passes and thrown 16 touchdowns against just one interception. Notre Dame’s offense has piled up efficiency numbers that put it near the top of the country, including a second-place ranking in FBS in points per drive.
BYU has built an equally sturdy start. The Cougars are 5-0 and ranked eighth, and their defense has been reliable throughout the season, giving up 13.4 points per game and never allowing more than 23 in any contest.
Bear Bachmeier has taken on a bigger load since running back LJ Martin’s injury, contributing both through the air and on the ground. BYU’s defense has also made life difficult for opponents with pressure and turnovers, while the home setting has given the Cougars a steady boost.
Still, Notre Dame looks to have the cleaner path. The Irish bring more depth and a defense that has been more consistent across the board. They’ve handled lesser opponents with control, and the expectation here is that they’ll generate enough big plays to get through the road challenge.
BYU has enough to keep this interesting, especially with physical defense and Bachmeier’s dual-threat ability. But moving the ball consistently against Notre Dame’s top-ranked unit is a tough ask.
A 28-24 finish fits the matchup. Notre Dame appears to be the more complete team, and the Irish are positioned to walk out of Provo still unbeaten.
In Other News...
Notre Dame Just Got Fresh Bulletin Board Material Before BYU
With Notre Dame preparing for BYU, the Cougars have already started framing the matchup around the challenge of slowing down freshman quarterback CJ Carr. Linebacker Jake Clifton spoke ahead of the game and made it clear that BYU intends to bring heat, talking about a plan to make Carr uncomfortable and lean on a physical style that will put the Irish offensive line in focus.
Clifton also balanced that edge with respect for Notre Dames program and the players wearing the blue and gold, treating the game like another step on the schedule even as the rhetoric sharpened. For Notre Dame, though, comments like that are exactly the kind that can linger in a locker room and add a little extra energy to a game already carrying plenty of attention. [Read more 🡒]
CJ Carr Is Forcing BYU To Rethink How It Defends Notre Dame
Ahead of Notre Dames meeting with BYU, Cougars defensive coordinator Brady Poppinga laid out the challenge of trying to slow CJ Carr, and it starts long before the ball is snapped. Poppinga said the plan has to be about creating confusion for the Irish quarterback, because Carr has shown the kind of arm strength and field awareness that can punish a defense if it gives him a clean pre-snap picture.
Carrs rise has forced opponents to treat Notre Dames passing game with extra caution, especially when he can extend plays and find answers both from the pocket and outside of it. Through this season, he has completed 70% of his passes with 16 touchdowns and one interception, a line that helps explain why BYU is approaching him as more than just another young quarterback on the schedule. [Read more 🡒]
Notre Dame's Rushing Surge Faces Its Biggest Test Yet
Notre Dames ground game has started to look like the kind of calling card that can travel, with the offensive line giving the Irish more push in recent weeks and right tackle Guerby Lambert emerging as a key part of that climb. The improvement has come from the kind of work coaches love to point to but fans only notice when it shows up on Saturdays - cleaner execution, better timing and a front that is beginning to work more as one unit.
BYU should provide a much sharper read on how real that progress is. The Cougars bring a defensive front that has been among the nations best at limiting rushing yards, which means the Irish line will have to carry its recent form into a far tougher setting. Lambert has stressed the need for practice, preparation and cohesion, and this matchup figures to reveal whether Notre Dames surge is a step forward or just a strong stretch against lesser resistance. [Read more 🡒]