UNC’s trip to Durham may come down to a simple question: which Walker Eget shows up?
Duke entered the season expecting Darian Mensah to be its quarterback, but that plan vanished at the last minute when Miami swooped in and took Mensah, buying him out of his contract with Duke along with his favorite receiver, Cooper Barkate. That left the Blue Devils scrambling late in roster-building season, after most teams and quarterbacks had already settled into place.
Duke eventually turned to Eget, who came over from San Jose State. He spent four years there, with the final two as a starter, and put together a body of work that included 58% passing for 5,550 yards, 30 touchdowns, and 19 interceptions. He was never much of a runner, either, rushing 64 times for 195 yards in that stretch.
This season at Duke, the production has been steadier on paper: 84-for-134 passing, a 63% completion rate, 930 yards, seven touchdowns, and one interception. He’s also rushed for eight yards on six carries, with one sack mixed in.
For what Duke is asking him to do, those are useful numbers. He doesn’t have to be Mensah.
He has to get the ball to the right spots and help create enough balance to keep defenses from keying entirely on Nate Sheppard.
That’s where the picture gets murkier. Eget has been all over the place.
By ESPN’s QBR metric, he sits 98th nationally at 43.7. That’s a long way from Darian Mensah’s 92.5, and also behind UNC’s Gio Lopez at 82.8 and Billy Edwards at 69.8.
But the number doesn’t come from one steady, mediocre season. Eget has been a roller coaster against FBS competition.
His games have swung sharply from one week to the next, and the defenses he’s faced have not exactly been elite. Stanford’s unit is currently leading the race for the worst defense among P4 schools.
UNC’s defense is a different challenge, landing somewhere between above average and good depending on who’s healthy. That’s why Saturday is so interesting: the version of Eget that shows up could shape the whole game.
Bill Belichick has already seen plenty of quarterbacks like this over the last two seasons, and the results have tilted his way more often than not. UNC faced Grayson Loftis of UNC Charlotte, Elijah Brown of Stanford, Joe Filardi of Syracuse, Robbie Ashford of Wake Forest, Jaden Craig of TCU, Tait Reynolds of Clemson, and Holden Geriner of Pittsburgh. Five of those quarterbacks were making their first FBS starts against UNC.
Belichick’s approach in those games was conservative, letting the quarterbacks make mistakes and waiting for big moments to go sideways for the offense. It worked five times in seven tries, and those five wins make up all five of Belichick’s FBS victories at UNC. The two times it didn’t work, Ashford and Reynolds settled in late and turned the games around in UNC losses.
So yes, the Tar Heels will start by trying to slow down Nate Sheppard, Duke’s All-ACC back. But if they do that, the next question is the real one: can they make Eget uncomfortable?
That’s the swing point for UNC in Durham.
In Other News...
UNC Opens Duke Week With A Roster Concern Fans Will Watch
Duke week opened with an early reminder that the injury report can shape the rivalry long before kickoff. The Atlantic Coast Conference released its initial availability report for the weekend slate, and North Carolina showed up with several names to monitor, including Kaleb Cost, Greg Smith, Isaiah Johnson, Jordan Hall and Jordan Washington, all listed either doubtful or questionable.
Duke also has a notable concern of its own, with star running back Nate Sheppard listed as questionable, but the focus in Chapel Hill will be on how UNCs report evolves from here. The ACC will update the injury list daily leading into game day, which means this matchup could look different by the time the teams finally meet. [Read more 🡒]
UNC Heads To Duke With A Defensive Problem It Can't Hide
North Carolina heads to Duke still trying to make sense of a defense that has too often put the offense back on the field. The Tar Heels have struggled on third down, and the issues have only grown more complicated with injuries thinning out the secondary. Against a Duke team that wants to lean on the ground game, UNC is walking into a matchup that will test both its communication and its ability to stay in control of long drives.
Nate Sheppard gives Duke a rushing threat that can expose missed assignments and worn-down personnel, which puts even more pressure on North Carolina to clean up the details. The Tar Heels do not just need better tackling, they need better timing, better down-and-distance situations and a defense that can survive without being stretched snap after snap. If UNC cannot solve those problems quickly, the Blue Devils have a clear path to make this rivalry tilt in their favor. [Read more 🡒]
UNC Fans Finally Get The Kenan Stadium Atmosphere They Wanted
For Tar Heels fans who have been waiting for a true night-game feel at Kenan Stadium, the ACC finally delivered one. North Carolinas Oct. 24 matchup with Syracuse will kick off at 7:30 p.m. ET on ACC Network, giving UNC its first Saturday night home game of the season and adding a little extra juice to a stretch that already carries plenty of weight.
The timing matters, too, with UNC sitting 3-2 overall and 1-1 in ACC play as it heads into a run that includes Duke, Syracuse and Miami. The Syracuse game will also be labeled Family Football Day, but the bigger draw may be the atmosphere itself, with Tar Heels supporters finally getting the kind of prime-time setting they have been hoping to see in Chapel Hill. [Read more 🡒]