UNCs New Offense Has One Risk Michael Malone Must Solve

New coach Michael Malone faces the challenge of turning UNCs new high-scoring recruits into an efficient and cohesive offensive unit.

Michael Malone doesn’t have a shortage of scorers in his first North Carolina roster. The bigger issue is figuring out who should actually be taking the shots.

Terrence Brown arrives from Utah after averaging nearly 20 points per game last season, while likely starting center Cameron Fens put up 14.4 points at South Dakota and Neoklis Avdalas scored 12.1 a night at Virginia Tech. Those are the kinds of transfer numbers that suggest plenty of offense is on the way in Chapel Hill. But the real question is how all of that scoring gets sorted out once the season starts.

The Tar Heels have several newcomers who were used as major offensive pieces at their previous schools, and the efficiency numbers show just how different those roles were. Five of North Carolina’s new players averaged at least seven field-goal attempts per game last season, but they didn’t produce at the same level.

Brown led the group in shot volume, averaging 15.4 field-goal attempts per game at Utah. His effective field goal percentage, though, sat at 48.6% per CBB Analytics.

That doesn’t make him a bad player. It does raise the obvious Chapel Hill question: will that same workload work as well in a different setting?

Avdalas brings a similar conversation with him. The former Virginia Tech guard averaged 10.8 field-goal attempts per game and finished with a 46% effective field goal rate, the lowest among the transfers heading to North Carolina.

Not every newcomer came in with those same efficiency concerns. Angelo Brizzi, who joins from Buffalo, shot 55.5% on 9.5 field-goal attempts per game. Fens was also efficient, averaging 10.0 attempts while shooting 57.9% from the field.

That contrast is what makes Malone’s job so important. He has to identify the players who can score, sure, but he also has to sort out who belongs in the first and second scoring spots. With a roster built from players who were asked to do so much at different stops, the distribution of touches could shape the whole offense.

There’s a chance some of these numbers look different once they’re all playing together. Brown, for example, may not need to live at 15 shots a night at North Carolina, and a lower volume could help his efficiency climb. The same idea applies to Avdalas and Brown more broadly: their old workloads came in different environments, and a new supporting cast could change the math.

What the stats make clear is that Malone needs to establish an offensive hierarchy early. Without that, North Carolina could end up with too many players who are used to bigger roles than the ones they’ll actually have.

The Tar Heels clearly have enough talent to compete in the ACC. But if the pecking order on offense never gets sorted out, that talent could be harder to turn into consistent production.

For now, the key numbers to watch are Brown’s. If he’s taking 10-13 shots a night in November and December while staying above 50% efficiency, that would be a strong sign Malone has found the right balance. If he keeps firing 15 or more times per game and stays under 50%, then the volume probably needs to come down.

In the end, this team’s postseason ceiling won’t be about who can score. It’ll be about who Malone trusts to score, and when.

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Miles O'Neill's situation is one to watch beyond this season because the Tar Heels are not done adding talent at the position. Travis Burgess is on the way in, and if Edwards Jr. holds onto the job, O'Neill could be squeezed by both the roster traffic ahead of him and any coaching changes that follow. For North Carolina, it is the sort of quarterback puzzle that can look manageable in August and become much harder to sort out once the offseason starts turning again. [Read more 🡒]