UNC men’s basketball is heading into a season defined by one word: change.
That’s been the reality from the moment the coaching switch hit so suddenly, right as roster-building season was about to begin. A coach who never seriously considered college basketball one Tuesday was in charge of one of the sport’s biggest brands the next, and portal season opened that same day. Six months and three exhibition games later, the picture is still a mix of promise and uncertainty.
There’s obvious talent here. There are also real questions, especially around the point and the post.
Jarin Stevenson, the roster’s best back-to-the-basket option, came into college as a versatile wing. Cameron Fens is unavailable because of a Tennessee court ruling, while Seth Trimble is eligible because a court 250 miles to the north ruled differently.
Meanwhile, Neo Avdalas and Terrence Brown, the two most likely offensive facilitators, have each shown flashes and rough edges in exhibition play. Rebounding has been shaky.
Turnovers have piled up.
Still, the ceiling is easy to see. The harder part is figuring out how quickly this group gets there.
That’s the question running through Tar Heel Blog staff predictions, which span everything from a 21-11 regular season to a 27-5 one, from a second-place ACC finish to fifth, and from a second-round exit to a Final Four run.
On the individual side, the choices tell their own story. Sayon Keita was the most popular pick for team MVP, with Neo Avdalas and Jarin Stevenson also drawing support.
Isaiah Denis was the clear favorite for most improved after an injury-hit freshman year left him with little room to carve out a bigger role last season. Biggest surprise was spread around, with names like Sayon Keita, Isaiah Denis, Alex Samodurov, Jaydon Young, Matt Able and even others getting mentions.
Maximo Adams was the near-universal answer for most minutes off the bench. Sayon Keita also dominated the best defender category, while Matt Able was the favorite to hit the most three-pointers. The vote for best defender came with a little extra flavor: “Someone teach Sayon the Dikembo finger-wag.”
The best-win picks all circled the same place. Beating Duke was the preseason fantasy nobody could quite avoid. West Virginia, Louisville, Stanford, Pitt, Georgetown and Virginia were among the other targets, but Duke was the common thread.
The loss predictions are where the anxiety shows up. West Virginia, Louisville and Virginia Tech were the games most often flagged as the season’s low point, depending on whether the staff thought this team would be clicking early, in the middle of ACC play, or not fully at all.
One read is that a blowout loss at Louisville would mean the team is still trying to come together deep into conference season. Another is that losing late at Virginia Tech would suggest the pieces never really fit.
The staff’s comments on the season’s possible MVPs frame the whole outlook. A big Sayon Keita season would mean the freshman adapts fast and becomes a force inside by the end of the year.
Avdalas winning the honor would confirm the idea that his size and skill can make him a matchup problem while he runs the offense. Stevenson taking the leap would point to a huge year for the Chapel Hill native.
Brown not being selected at all reflects confidence that he won’t have to dominate the ball to make the offense work.
And that’s the larger theme here: the roster’s best version depends on several players taking meaningful steps forward, not just one star carrying the load. If that happens quickly, UNC’s season could look a lot closer to the upper end of these projections. If it doesn’t, the floor is lower than the ceiling suggests.
One final reminder hangs over all of it: Roy Williams went 19-11 in his first season at UNC. A year later, he had a 33-win team. Change takes time.
In Other News...
UNC Freshman Nyqir Helton May Be Forcing His Way Onto The Field
Nyqir Heltons name is getting harder to keep off the field. The true freshman wide receiver made his first career start for North Carolina against Syracuse, and it came because of what he had been doing in practice, not because of a teammates absence. For a young receiver trying to earn trust early in Chapel Hill, that kind of opportunity usually says as much about the week-to-week grind as it does about game day.
Helton responded by playing a career-high 67 snaps, a sign that the staff is finding more reasons to lean on him. His development has been steady, built through practice work, scout team reps and the developmental setting of Sunday Night Football. For UNC, the bigger question now is not whether Helton can get on the field, but how quickly his rise turns from a promising burst into a regular part of the rotation. [Read more 🡒]
UNC Is Closing In On A Recruit Tar Heels Fans Will Obsess Over
A high-stakes recruiting decision is finally arriving for DeMarcus Henry, and North Carolina has positioned itself right at the center of it. The five-star guard, ranked No. 2 in the SC Next 100 Class of 2027, is set to announce his college choice Friday at 3 p.m. ET during ESPNs NBA Today, with the Tar Heels bidding against Kentucky, Arkansas and Louisville for one of the most coveted prospects in the country.
UNC earned plenty of momentum after hosting Henry for his final official visit, a trip that reportedly included a call from Michael Jordan. Recent reports and predictions have leaned toward North Carolina as the favorite, which has only added to the anticipation around the programs push for a player who would instantly become one of the biggest recruiting wins in the class if the Tar Heels can finish the job. [Read more 🡒]
UNC's Frontcourt Problem Is Still Hanging Over The Season Opener
Cameron Fens has been around North Carolinas practice floor, but the transfer forward still cannot yet give the Tar Heels what they need most as the season opener approaches. He remains ineligible to play while NCAA eligibility questions tied to ongoing lawsuits are sorted out, leaving UNC to plan without a frontcourt piece it expected to have in the mix.
Michael Malone has already voiced frustration with the delay, and the uncertainty has lingered long enough to shape the early feel of the season. Fens has not appeared in exhibition games, and with no final NCAA ruling in hand, his status for opening night remains one of the biggest unresolved questions hanging over the Tar Heels. [Read more 🡒]