North Carolina’s road back to bowl eligibility is still there, but the margin for error is gone.
After a 4-2 start, the Tar Heels looked like they were cruising toward six wins and a postseason berth. A fifth victory seemed there for the taking against Syracuse, a team that came into Kenan Stadium winless in the ACC. UNC needed just one more win in its final five games.
Instead, Syracuse survived in overtime, and last weekend’s upset bid against No. 1 Miami came up short late. That leaves the Tar Heels needing two wins from their final four games, and none of the four looks easy.
Here’s how those final opponents stack up, from most manageable to most difficult on paper.
The best opening is this weekend at UConn on Nov. 7 at noon.
UNC opened as a one-touchdown favorite on the road, and that makes sense given the matchup. UConn is 4-4, with wins over Lafayette, Southern Miss, Temple and UMass. The Huskies’ losses have come against Maryland, Miami OH, Syracuse in overtime and Air Force.
Still, this is no automatic win. UConn’s offense has been productive, averaging 34.4 points per game behind quarterback Kalieb Osborne, who has 21 total touchdowns - 14 passing and seven rushing - and only two interceptions in eight games.
The problem is the other side of the ball. The Huskies have had trouble defensively, giving up more than 25 points per game.
After putting up 35 against Miami, UNC will need to keep that offensive momentum going.
The next week brings Louisville to Chapel Hill on Nov. 14, with kickoff set for either 7 p.m. or 7:30 p.m.
That one looks like the toughest test left. Jeff Brohm’s team entered the season with plenty of buzz, and the Cardinals showed it early by pushing Ole Miss to the wire in a 41-38 loss in Week 1.
But losses to Wake Forest and NC State knocked Louisville off course. Even so, the Cardinals are 5-3, third in the ACC, and they bring a dangerous offense with them.
Louisville ranks No. 5 nationally in scoring, putting up more than 40 points per game. Quarterback Lincoln Kienholz leads that attack, and UNC’s defense will have to find a way to slow him down. Kienholz is a true dual-threat quarterback, which only adds to the challenge.
On Nov. 21, UNC heads to Virginia, with game time still to be determined.
Virginia’s season has been a roller coaster. The Cavaliers opened by hammering NC State 34-8 in Week 0 and looked like a team ready to make noise in the ACC.
Since then, though, quarterback Beau Pribula and Virginia have had a harder time finding consistency. Pribula has topped 200 passing yards only once against Power Four competition.
Virginia is 4-5 overall and 2-4 in ACC play, with losses to West Virginia, Florida State, SMU, Duke and Wake Forest. Its Power Four wins have come against NC State and Syracuse, a 28-25 victory. UNC has won its last two games in Charlottesville, and this trip gives the Tar Heels a chance to make it three straight.
The regular-season finish comes Nov. 29 against NC State, with the time to be announced.
That rivalry game brings its own weight, no matter what the records say. NC State is 4-4 after a win over California, a response that came after Dave Doeren was fired following a loss to Stanford. The Wolfpack also own a key win over Louisville and sit 10th in the ACC.
UNC has dropped five straight to NC State, and that streak alone makes this one feel bigger than the standings. The coaching situation may have changed, but the rivalry pressure will still be there for both teams.
For UNC, the formula is simple now: find two wins somewhere in this stretch, and the bowl path stays alive.
In Other News...
Kaleb Cost Just Gave UNC's Secondary A Needed Reality Check
Kaleb Costs return gave North Carolinas secondary a timely boost in a recent matchup with Miami, and it came with a clear reminder of how little margin there is against top receivers. After missing time with injury, Cost was back on the field and part of a unit that kept Malachi Toney in check for much of the game, even if the Miami wideout still finished with seven catches for 75 yards and two touchdowns.
Cost spoke afterward about what it meant to be back, while also giving Toney his due as a difficult cover. For UNC, the bigger takeaway may be the standard it has to sustain from here, with preparation and consistency becoming the key words for a defense that needs its secondary to keep answering the bell every week. [Read more 🡒]
UNC Defense Faces A New Problem After That Miami Letdown
UNC is trying to put the Miami loss behind it, but the bigger concern out of that game was how much the defense struggled when the pressure rose. Now the Tar Heels turn to UConn, a team with a similar record but a different kind of challenge waiting on the other side of the ball. This one is built around quarterback Kalieb Osborne, who gives the Huskies a rushing element that can stress a defense in a hurry.
For North Carolina, the assignment is straightforward even if the execution is not: keep Osborne from turning scrambles and designed runs into the kind of momentum that can tilt a game. After letting Miami expose some issues, the Tar Heels need a cleaner showing against a team that can attack in a way they have already shown some trouble handling. If UNC wants to steady its season, this is the sort of matchup where the defense has to answer first. [Read more 🡒]
UNC Win Exposed A Frontcourt Concern Fans Cant Ignore
North Carolina opened the season with a win over Western Carolina, but the box score left behind a familiar worry for anyone watching closely: the Tar Heels leaned heavily on perimeter scoring while struggling to establish much of anything inside. The frontcourt never quite took control, and the rebounding numbers told the story, with UNC losing the battle on the glass 41-32 and giving up 13 offensive boards.
For a team with conference play looming, that kind of imbalance is hard to ignore. The hope was that transfer Cameron Fens could help stabilize the post and add some needed size, but eligibility issues have kept that option off the table for now, leaving UNC to sort through its frontcourt questions the old-fashioned way. [Read more 🡒]