North Carolina’s margin for error is getting thinner, but ESPN still sees the Tar Heels landing on the right side of bowl eligibility.
After a two-game slide, the Football Power Index has UNC projected at 5.8-6.2, which rounds out to a 6-6 finish. That would place the Tar Heels with the sixth fewest wins in the ACC, but it also keeps them in range of the six wins usually needed to reach a bowl.
Not everyone is buying it, though. ESPN’s Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach recently ran through their bowl projections again, and Bonagura still has UNC missing out for a second straight year. Schlabach, on the other hand, is sticking with the Tar Heels.
UNC enters Week 6 at 2-2 overall and 0-1 in league play after dropping its last two games. The road ahead is no joke: No.
25 Pittsburgh is next, followed by a possible date with a ranked Duke team in Week 7 and then No. 4 Miami on Halloween.
ESPN’s FPI changes often, with the biggest swings typically coming after games on Sundays. Right now, UNC sits at No. 47 nationally, and the climb from here will depend on how it handles the stretch ahead.
A pair of ranked losses to Pitt and Miami would leave little room for error, since the Tar Heels would then need to win four of their other six games. That’s a doable path on paper, but it also depends on which UNC shows up from week to week.
The schedule still gives them opportunities. Syracuse, UConn and Louisville remain on the slate, and those games could help push the Tar Heels toward the five-win mark. If Pitt and Miami are off the table, then matchups with Duke, Virginia and NC State become the ones that have to be banked.
Schlabach’s latest projection has UNC meeting Auburn in the JLab Birmingham Bowl. That game is scheduled for Tuesday, Dec. 29 at Protective Stadium in Birmingham, Alabama.
So while the skid has made the picture a little murkier, Schlabach is still holding out belief that Belichick’s Tar Heels can get to six wins and reach a bowl game.
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The biggest decision appears to be on the perimeter, where UNC has more options than obvious answers at both wing and point guard. Neoklis Avdalas, Matt Able, Terrence Brown Jr., Isaiah Denis, Angelo Brizzi, Jarin Stevenson and Maximo Adams are all part of the conversation, and the uncertainty around who starts and who settles into what role is already one of the defining storylines of the new era. Malone does not need to solve everything in one exhibition, but he does need to start narrowing the picture. [Read more 🡒]
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UNC Just Added Another Huge Piece For Courtney Banghart's Future Core
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Ojo said the fit at North Carolina stood out because of the academics, the coaching staff and the team environment, a familiar formula for Bangharts staff when it lands a coveted prospect. For a program that continues to think ahead while staying competitive in the moment, Ojos pledge adds another high-upside piece to a core that could keep taking shape in Chapel Hill. [Read more 🡒]