The North Carolina Tar Heels are rolling into conference play with plenty of momentum. At 12-1, they’ve looked every bit like a team ready to make noise in March.
The frontcourt is stacked, Seth Trimble is giving them a spark in the backcourt, and the depth across the roster has been a real asset. But as the calendar flips and the ACC grind begins, there’s one glaring issue that could trip them up: free throws.
So far this season, UNC is shooting just 68.4% from the line - and that’s not just a bad number on paper. It’s been a consistent struggle.
In fact, the Tar Heels haven’t hit the 70% mark in a single game since their Nov. 27 loss to Michigan State. That’s a full month without cracking what most would consider a baseline for competent free-throw shooting.
And look, we all know free throws aren’t the flashiest part of the game. But when you’re trying to win close games in March - or even late in ACC play - they matter.
A lot. Just ask teams like the 2007-08 Memphis Tigers or 2018-19 Duke Blue Devils, both of whom saw championship hopes dashed in part because they couldn’t convert at the stripe when it counted.
Right now, only two players on the Tar Heels’ roster are shooting above 80% from the line: Seth Trimble and Derek Dixon. That’s a good start, but it’s not nearly enough when you consider how often big men and role players find themselves at the line in tight games. And while this issue hasn’t cost UNC yet - thanks in part to a relatively soft non-conference schedule - the margin for error shrinks dramatically once ACC play begins.
Florida State is up first on Dec. 30, and while the Seminoles aren’t ranked, they’re a physical, defensive-minded team that can turn games into grind-it-out affairs. After that, the Tar Heels have a stretch that includes SMU, Stanford, and California - none of them ranked, but none of them pushovers, either.
Then comes a Jan. 24 matchup with No. 21 Virginia, a team that thrives on making opponents pay for every mistake - missed free throws very much included.
The good news? North Carolina has time.
The bad news? Free-throw shooting is one of those things that tends to follow teams all season.
It’s not just about mechanics - it’s about confidence, focus, and repetition. And if it hasn’t clicked by now, there’s no guarantee it will.
Still, this is a veteran UNC squad with high aspirations. They’ve got the talent to make a deep run, and they’ve shown flashes of dominance on both ends of the floor.
But if they want to be playing in April - not watching from home - they’ll need to start cashing in at the line. Because come March, every point counts.