UNC walked out of Clemson with more than a loss. It left with a problem that could shape the rest of the season.
The Tar Heels came in facing a Tigers offense that looked shaky on paper. Clemson had been bad enough to give up 11 tackles for loss and convert only two of 14 third downs against Georgia Southern, and Dabo Sweeney had already made the move to a true freshman quarterback.
That meant UNC wasn’t staring at the kind of blue-chip, instant-impact passer Clemson fans have been spoiled by in the past. It was Tait Reynolds, a three-star prospect according to On3.
Instead of Clemson’s young quarterback crumbling, UNC’s defense did. In the second half, Clemson pushed the tempo and averaged 9.5 yards per play, with Reynolds averaging 13.9 yards per pass attempt.
That stands in sharp contrast to 2019 LSU, which averaged 7.9 yards per play and had Joe Burrough at 12.43 yards per pass attempt. The script flipped on UNC, and not in the way anyone expected.
The offensive side hasn’t offered much relief. A Bobby Petrino offense has scored six total points in the second half of its two P4 games.
Billy Edwards is sitting 16th in the ACC in completion percentage, 12th in yards per attempt and 13th in passer rating, and that leaves UNC 14th in the league in passing yards per game. Gio Lopez, who looked last season at Carolina a lot like Edwards looks now, is currently second at Wake Forest.
That’s how a team that woke up last Saturday with Game Day teasing a trip to Chapel Hill ended the night staring at a four-game losing streak.
The calendar is not helping.
UNC gets its second bye week before the end of September, which at least gives Bill Belichick and his staff time to consider a quarterback change. It also gives the defensive staff a chance to clean up the depth and communication issues Clemson exposed with tempo. And there’s still a path to making Notre Dame uncomfortable enough to drag that game into the second half, where a home crowd and the pressure on the Irish to stay unbeaten could work in UNC’s favor.
But the back half of the schedule is brutal. After the bye, UNC faces nine straight games over nine weeks.
Notre Dame comes first, and that matchup is described as an extremely physical one, the kind that leaves bruises and limps for the next week. Then come trips to Pittsburgh and Duke, both undefeated right now.
That’s a hard stretch with a settled quarterback. It gets much harder if UNC is still trying to solve the most important position on the field.
If Belichick wants to make a switch, does he do it against Notre Dame, even at home, against an elite defense? Does he wait for Pitt?
For Duke? Does he ride with Edwards despite the struggles?
There may not be a clean answer.
The worst-case version is ugly: losses to Clemson, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh and Duke would leave UNC needing to win four of its final six just to reach bowl eligibility. Miami and Louisville are on that closing stretch, though sweeping Syracuse, Boston College, Virginia on the road and NC State is at least possible, even if it is not probable.
There’s another catch, too. UNC’s investment in 40 true freshmen means the depth chart is very young compared with the competition. The two-deep could feature plenty of players who are less experienced and less physically developed than the opponents across from them.
So the range is wide. UNC can still see a 7-5 finish.
It also has plenty of room to slide to 4-8. Good injury luck will matter, and so will a quick answer at quarterback.
The metrics don’t sound especially optimistic.
ESPN’s FPI dropped UNC eight spots to 50th overall. The offense is 59th, the defense 37th, and special teams 107th. That kind of weekly drop is significant, even if preseason talent weights still linger in the model.
SP+ also moved UNC down eight spots, to 59th. It likes the defense more than the offense, ranking the Heels 37th on that side and 83rd on offense, with special teams at 37th.
FEI is the most skeptical of the bunch, though it did bump UNC up two spots to 73rd overall. It ranks the offense 76th, the defense 73rd and special teams 54th.
Looking ahead, Notre Dame still gets tagged as an (L) after a 27-10 win over Michigan State that failed to cover a 29.5-point spread. The Irish go to Purdue before arriving in Chapel Hill.
Duke also gets marked as a likely (L) after rolling Stanford 35-7. Nate Shepard has 580 yards rushing and receiving and eight touchdowns, and while Duke’s quarterback has looked very average, he hasn’t self-destructed the way UNC did against Clemson.
Syracuse remains the most winnable of the three. Amari Odom has replaced Steve Angeli, and that game could come down to Fran Brown being willing to make a quarterback change early while Belichick waits too long. For now, Syracuse stays a (W).
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Belichicks Comments Just Turned Up The Heat On UNCs Quarterback
North Carolinas Week 3 loss to Clemson had the familiar feel of a game that slipped away after a solid start, and Bill Belichicks postgame assessment only sharpened the focus on what went wrong. The Tar Heels led in the first half but couldnt hold it, and the head coachs takeaway suggested the issue was less about Clemson springing surprises and more about North Carolina failing to capitalize when it mattered.
Billy Edwards Jr. ended up at the center of that conversation after completing 13 of 30 passes for 135 yards with one touchdown and one interception. With Belichick saying Clemsons defense did not make major changes beyond blitz looks the Tar Heels were ready for, the questions around quarterback execution and how much of the loss can be traced back to the offense are now front and center. [Read more 🡒]
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The bigger concern for the Tar Heels may be on the other side of the ball, where the absence of pass rusher Abou Jaoude because of injury left a hole that was hard to ignore. With more important games ahead, his availability becomes a real question for a defense that could use all the disruption it can get. UNC has already taken its first conference loss, and now it has to manage both the pressure of the schedule and the uncertainty around a key defender. [Read more 🡒]