CHAPEL HILL - North Carolina’s offense has already made one thing clear through three exhibitions and Monday’s season opener: Michael Malone is going to keep the ball moving, and he’s going to trust more than one guard to steer the ship.
The early tracking data backs that up. Terrence Brown Jr. has handled the biggest load so far, according to Hudl Instat, but Neo Avdalas has been the more efficient creator in several key spots, while Angelo Brizzi has filled a smaller, steadier role.
Brown leads the trio in tracked offensive possessions at 12.2 per game. More than half of those come in two areas: as the pick-and-roll ball handler, where he accounts for 31.3% of his possessions, and in transition, where he takes 22.9%. He’s scored a point per possession as a pick-and-roll handler, but the numbers dip in transition, where he’s at .73, and on catch-and-shoot chances, where he’s at .86.
That uneven profile showed up in Monday’s 80-72 win over Western Carolina. Brown shot 3-of-11 from the floor and missed all three of his 3-point attempts, but still finished with 14 points by going 8 of 10 at the foul line. He also added two steals and a block.
“I never question if Terrence Brown is going to compete and play hard because that’s just how he’s wired,” Malone said.
Avdalas has been the most efficient of the three in pick-and-roll work. He’s averaging about 11 tracked offensive possessions per game, with 22.7% of them coming as the pick-and-roll handler.
In that role, he’s producing 1.4 points per possession, the best mark among the three guards. He’s also at 1.67 points per possession on handoffs, and he’s at 1.0 on both catch-and-shoot and transition possessions.
The rougher spots for Avdalas have come on isolations and catch-and-drives. He’s at .33 of a point per possession on isolations and .57 on catch-and-drives, and he’s the only one of the three with tracked post-ups. Against Western Carolina, he posted 13 points, seven rebounds and four assists, along with three turnovers.
Malone said the multiple-initiator setup should make UNC tougher to defend, and it also means Brown has to stay ready when Avdalas starts the action.
“I think for Terrence, him trusting in the fact that if Neo’s initiating, that may mean he might be getting the ball on the second side or on the backside of an action,” Malone said.
When Avdalas is off the floor, Malone said, Brown takes over the ball-handling load.
Brizzi’s footprint has been smaller, but the early numbers show a clear role. He’s at about 2.5 tracked offensive possessions per game, roughly 10 across the four games, and his biggest share has come on catch-and-shoot looks, where he’s at 1.0 point per possession. He’s been the pick-and-roll ball handler on 10% of those possessions, which works out to just one total possession.
His defensive sample is small too, but the tracking shows he’s been tested most often on catch-and-drives, which make up 28.6% of his defensive possessions. On those plays, he’s allowed .5 of a point per possession.
For Brown and Avdalas, the numbers have been less kind in transition defense than in pick-and-roll coverage. Avdalas has allowed .78 of a point per possession against pick-and-roll ball handlers and .75 on catch-and-shoot attempts, but 1.14 in transition. Brown has allowed .88 against pick-and-roll handlers, .86 on catch-and-drives and 1.25 in transition.
Malone’s concerns about rebounding were also reflected in Monday’s box score. Jarin Stevenson and Sayon Keita had two rebounds apiece, while Avdalas grabbed seven and Brown five. Malone has pushed for more from the frontcourt, and the guard numbers were part of that conversation.
Avdalas said the Tar Heels need to clean up their transition defense after Western Carolina chipped away at the lead.
“We let teams run,” Avdalas said. “We have to limit that.”
The Brown-Avdalas pairing has already shown up in some of UNC’s most effective lineups. One unit featuring Stevenson, Keita and Jaydon Young has gone +11 in 7:41.
Another group with Matt Able, Stevenson and Maximo Adams allowed only two points in 5:16. The most-used lineup, with Stevenson, Keita and Able, is +2 in 22:13.
The samples are still small, but they offer an early look at how Malone can mix and match his two main ball handlers.
October Exhibitions
9 W, 88-70 Friday vs. No. 21 USC in Greensboro
18 L, 76-58 Sunday vs. Indiana in Indianapolis
27 W, 89-82, OT Tuesday vs. Charlotte
November Regular season
2 W, 80-72 Monday vs. Western Carolina 1-0
6 7 p.m. Friday vs. Wofford ACCN
10 7 p.m. Tuesday vs. Wyoming ACCN
13 7 p.m. Friday vs. Georgia ESPN2
20 9 p.m. Friday vs. Marshall ACCN
23 7 p.m. Monday vs. Monmouth ACCN
27 7 p.m. Friday Dick Vitale Invitational vs. West Virginia in Charlotte ESPN
December
1 7:30 Tuesday ACC/SEC Challenge vs. No. 12 Arkansas ESPN
6 3 p.m. Sunday vs. Butler ESPN2
12 Noon Saturday at Georgetown Peacock
15 7 p.m. Tuesday Tobacco Road Classic vs.
N.C. State in Greensboro ESPN2
19 2:30 Saturday CBS Sports Classic vs. No. 23 Kentucky in New York CBS
21 8 p.m. Monday vs. The Citadel The CW
30 4 p.m. Wednesday vs. California ACCN
January
2 4 p.m. Saturday at Boston College ESPN or ESPN2
5 9 p.m. Tuesday at No. 11 Louisville ESPN or ESPNU
9 Noon Saturday vs. N.C. State ESPN2
13 7 p.m. Wednesday at Florida State ESPN2 or ESPNU
16 2:15 Saturday vs. Stanford The CW
19 9 p.m. Tuesday vs.
No. 9 Virginia ESPN
23 Noon Saturday at Syracuse ESPN or 2 or U
26 7 p.m. Tuesday vs. SMU ESPN or ESPN2
30 6 or 6:30 Saturday Nashville Hoops Showdown vs. No.
3 Illinois in Nashville, Tenn. ESPN
February
2 7 p.m. Tuesday at Notre Dame ESPN or ESPN2
6 2:15 Saturday vs. Georgia Tech The CW
8 6 p.m. Monday vs.
No. 11 Louisville ESPN
13 5:30 Saturday at No. 2 Duke ABC
20 7 p.m. Saturday at Wake Forest ACCN
22 7 p.m. Monday vs.
No. 14 Miami ESPN
27 7 p.m. Saturday at Virginia Tech ESPN
March
2 9 p.m. Tuesday at Pittsburgh ESPN or ESPN2
6 6 or 6:30 Saturday vs. No. 2 Duke ESPN
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The wrinkle is Pettigrews timeline, since a possible reclassification to 2027 would instantly put him on the same board as Henry and give North Carolina a chance to stack elite talent in one class. Multiple top programs are chasing Pettigrew, so the Tar Heels are not alone in this pursuit, but the combination of his recent visit and the possibility of an accelerated path makes this one worth monitoring closely for what it could mean for UNCs long-term roster build. [Read more 🡒]