The Tar Heels avoided a potential résumé blemish on Saturday, taking care of business at home with a 79-65 win over Pittsburgh. That victory kept North Carolina from suffering a damaging Quad 3 loss - and more importantly, helped them hold steady at No. 25 in the NET rankings. With a critical stretch of three straight Quad 1 games on the horizon - and without the services of Caleb Wilson - the timing couldn’t have been more crucial.
But not everything broke UNC’s way this weekend.
Clemson’s back-to-back losses have shifted the landscape. One of the five Quad 1 opportunities the Tar Heels had been counting on over their final six regular-season games has now slipped into Quad 2 territory.
Duke’s 67-54 win over Clemson dropped the Tigers to No. 32 in the NET, nudging that March 3 matchup in Chapel Hill out of Quad 1 - for now. If Clemson can claw back into the top 30, that game could regain its top-tier status.
For a team like UNC, fighting for NCAA Tournament seeding, every one of those high-value games matters.
Let’s take a step back and look at how the NCAA’s quadrant system works - and how it applies to Carolina’s path forward.
Quadrant breakdowns (and where UNC stands):
- Quad 1 (UNC: 5-5, 4 left): These are the heavyweights - home games vs. NET top 30, neutral-site games vs. top 50, and road games vs. top 75.
These are the games that move the needle on Selection Sunday.
- Quad 2 (UNC: 2-0, 2 left): Still solid wins, but not quite résumé-makers. Home 31-75, neutral 51-100, road 76-135.
- Quad 3 (UNC: 8-0, none left): These are the games you must win. Slip up here, and the committee takes notice.
- Quad 4 (UNC: 5-0, none left): Bottom-tier games. Good for padding the win column, but not much else.
With the Pitt win in the books, UNC now turns its attention to Tuesday’s road game against N.C. State.
Despite the Wolfpack’s narrow 77-76 home loss to Miami, they remain a Quad 1 opponent with a NET ranking of 29. That game tips off at 7 p.m. and offers a big opportunity for Carolina to build momentum heading into a packed week.
Here’s how the next stretch looks:
- Feb. 17 at N.C. State (NET: 29) - Quad 1
- Feb. 21 at Syracuse (NET: 69) - Quad 1 (road game vs. top 75)
- **Feb. 23 vs.
Louisville (NET: 12)** - Quad 1
- **Feb. 28 vs.
Virginia Tech (NET: 56)** - Quad 2
- **Mar. 3 vs.
Clemson (NET: 32)** - Quad 2 (could shift back to Quad 1)
- Mar. 7 at Duke (NET: 2) - Quad 1
That’s four confirmed Quad 1 games left, with a fifth that’s just on the edge. And with the committee only caring about where opponents rank on Selection Sunday, the NET is going to be a moving target right up until the final buzzer of the regular season.
UNC’s NCAA résumé at a glance:
- NET ranking: 25
- KenPom: 28
- ESPN BPI: 32
- Bart Torvik T-Rank: 25
- Strength of schedule (NET): 64
- Average NET win: 126
- Average NET loss: 43
The résumé isn’t elite, but it’s solid - and that’s with a few quality wins already in the bank. Carolina has taken down Kansas (NET: 14), Ohio State (38), and Duke (2), and has road wins at Kentucky (28) and Virginia (19). The losses have mostly come against tournament-quality teams, including Michigan State (15), SMU (36), Stanford (70), and Miami (35).
Here’s a look at the full game-by-game NET breakdown:
| Date | Opponent | NET | Quad | Result |
|---|
| N3 | Central Arkansas | 181 | 4 | Win | | N7 | Kansas | 14 | 1 | Win |
| N11 | Radford | 240 | 4 | Win | | N14 | N.C.
Central | 339 | 4 | Win | | N18 | Navy | 151 | 4 | Win |
| N25 | St. Bonaventure* | 145 | 3 | Win |
| N27 | Michigan State* | 15 | 1 | Loss | | D2 | at Kentucky | 28 | 1 | Win |
| D7 | Georgetown | 91 | 3 | Win | | D13 | USC Upstate | 293 | 4 | Win |
| D16 | ETSU | 127 | 3 | Win | | D20 | Ohio State* | 38 | 1 | Win |
| D22 | East Carolina | 269 | 4 | Win | | D30 | Florida State | 82 | 3 | Win |
| J3 | at SMU | 36 | 1 | Loss | | J10 | Wake Forest | 64 | 2 | Win |
| J14 | at Stanford | 70 | 1 | Loss | | J17 | at California | 60 | 1 | Loss |
| J21 | Notre Dame | 87 | 3 | Win | | J24 | at Virginia | 19 | 1 | Win |
| J31 | at Georgia Tech | 163 | 3 | Win | | F2 | Syracuse | 69 | 2 | Win |
| F7 | Duke | 2 | 1 | Win | | F10 | at Miami | 35 | 1 | Loss |
| F14 | Pittsburgh | 122 | 3 | Win |
*Neutral-site games
The takeaway? UNC’s tournament profile is in solid shape, but there’s still work to do.
With multiple Quad 1 games left and a chance to add more statement wins, the Tar Heels control their own destiny when it comes to seeding. But with no more room for slip-ups against lesser opponents - and no Caleb Wilson to lean on - every possession from here on out matters just a little more.
This next stretch will define not just where UNC lands in the bracket - but how dangerous they’ll be when they get there.