Tar Heels Face Tough Test at Virginia: Key Questions Ahead of Saturday’s Matchup
Trips to Charlottesville have rarely been kind to North Carolina. Even with Tony Bennett no longer on the sidelines, the ghosts of slow-paced, grind-it-out games still linger in the minds of Tar Heel fans.
Virginia’s home court has long been a house of horrors for UNC - a place where rhythm goes to die, and where shot clock violations are met with cheers instead of groans. And while the coaching staff has changed, the challenge remains the same: beat a disciplined, well-coached team in one of the toughest environments in the ACC.
This weekend’s matchup with Ryan Odom’s Cavaliers is shaping up to be another measuring stick for the Tar Heels. Virginia hasn’t faced the same level of competition as UNC this season, but they’ve handled business against teams like Louisville and SMU - the latter being a team that handed the Heels one of their few losses. So, while the resumes may differ, this is very much a game against a capable, confident opponent.
And with a winter storm moving in, tip-off has been pushed up to 12 PM ET. The earlier start won’t change the stakes, though.
This game could either solidify UNC’s momentum or expose some lingering issues as we head into the final stretch of January. Here are three key areas to watch if the Tar Heels want to leave Charlottesville with a win.
1. Who Gets the Start?
It’s not ideal to be tinkering with the starting lineup in late January, but that’s exactly where Hubert Davis finds himself. Since Seth Trimble returned from injury, Davis has been experimenting with different combinations, and the latest shuffle saw Jaylon Young start over Jarin Stevenson against Notre Dame. That move didn’t exactly pan out - Young got into early foul trouble and played just 14 minutes, leaving more questions than answers.
So now, Davis has a decision to make. If the Young experiment is shelved, two realistic options emerge: slide Jonathan Powell into the starting five or revert back to Stevenson at the three.
Powell brings grit and perimeter shooting - two things that could be useful against Virginia’s methodical defense. Stevenson, on the other hand, offers size and versatility, but his minutes often overlap with Caleb Wilson and Henri Veesaar, which complicates rotations.
Of course, Davis could double down on Young, chalking up the Notre Dame game as an off night. But with the margin for error shrinking in ACC play, every lineup choice matters - especially in games like this one, where possessions are at a premium.
2. Can the Defense Hold Up?
UNC’s defense has made strides, but it’s still very much a work in progress - particularly on the perimeter. Against Notre Dame, there were stretches where the Heels looked locked in, but also moments where open shooters got too many clean looks. That can’t happen against Virginia, a team that’s quietly shooting 37.1% from beyond the arc this season.
Thijs De Ridder leads the Cavaliers in scoring and is hitting nearly 39% of his threes - impressive for a frontcourt player. But the real concern lies in the backcourt, where Malik Thomas and Chance Mallory are both capable of catching fire from deep.
Virginia doesn’t rely on volume shooting, but when they do pull the trigger, they’re efficient. That’s the kind of profile that can punish a defense that’s a step slow on rotations.
For UNC, it’s simple: they have to close out hard, communicate through screens, and avoid the kind of lapses that have cost them in previous matchups. The Tar Heels don’t need to pitch a shutout from three, but they can’t afford to let Virginia get comfortable either. If the Cavaliers start connecting early, it could be a long afternoon.
3. Winning the Battle on the Boards
This one’s been a bit of a head-scratcher. On paper, North Carolina has one of the biggest and most athletic frontcourts in the country.
Between Wilson, Veesaar, and the rest of the rotation, they have the tools to dominate the glass. And yet, that hasn’t consistently translated into results.
Case in point: Notre Dame grabbed 18 offensive rebounds in their last outing - compared to just 10 for UNC. That’s not just a stat; it’s a warning sign. Giving up that many second-chance opportunities is a surefire way to let an inferior team hang around.
Virginia won’t make it any easier. They’re averaging 41.9 rebounds per game - slightly better than UNC’s 40.7 - and while they don’t have overwhelming size, they rebound with effort and positioning. That’s often all it takes.
If the Tar Heels want to control this game, they’ll need to be the more physical team. That means boxing out, crashing the glass, and limiting UVA to one shot per possession. Because against a team that plays as deliberately as the Cavaliers, every extra possession is magnified.
Final Thought
There’s no sugarcoating it - this is a tough matchup. Virginia’s style has always been a tough nut to crack, and they’re playing solid basketball under Ryan Odom.
But UNC has the talent, size, and experience to win this game. It’ll come down to execution: getting the lineup right, defending the perimeter, and asserting themselves on the boards.
If they can check those boxes, the Tar Heels have a real shot at flipping the Charlottesville script. If not, it could be another frustrating chapter in a building that’s haunted them for years.