North Carolina’s outlook under Bill Belichick still looks stuck in a narrow lane, and that’s the part that stands out most.
The Tar Heels were a mess in 2025, going 4-8 in Belichick’s first season and landing among the bottom five teams in the ACC. There has been real roster improvement since then, but the skepticism around the program hasn’t gone anywhere. ESPN’s Bill Connelly added to that view earlier this week when he laid out his expectations for the 2026-27 college football season, and his read on UNC was blunt: the Tar Heels will be lucky to get above .500, with 6-6 looking like the most likely outcome.
That kind of projection makes sense when you look at the schedule and the state of the ACC, which Connelly described as one of the most improved conferences in college football.
But the real swing factor is at quarterback. If Travis Burgess shows enough in training camp, there’s a case for Belichick to hand the freshman the job. The problem is that the 74-year-old coach has a track record of leaning toward veterans over younger players, even when the upside says otherwise.
If Burgess wins the Week 1 job, a seven-win season feels possible. Billy Edwards Jr. and Miles O’Neill may be the safer choices, but they also come with low ceilings of their own. If either one ends up starting, a season that looks a lot like 2025 would not be a shock.
That’s why North Carolina’s range feels so tight. The best-case scenario is 7-5.
The worst-case scenario drops the Tar Heels right back to 4-8. And two games already look like losses on paper: Week 4 against Notre Dame and Week 8 against Miami.
In Other News...
UNC Just Got Hit With Brutal News On 5-Star Marcus Spears Jr
North Carolinas pursuit of Marcus Spears Jr. came up short in a way that stings more because the Tar Heels were in the mix for a player whose stock has only kept rising. Spears, a consensus top-10 prospect who had been viewed as one of the elite names in his class, had been on UNCs board after the staff extended him an offer, but the recruitment always carried the feel of a heavyweight battle for a player with national appeal and a long list of options.
Spears ultimately leaned toward staying close to home, and that decision leaves UNC looking elsewhere as it continues to manage a roster that is already close to full. For the Tar Heels, it is another reminder that even when they get involved early with a premier talent, the final call can still come down to fit, timing and geography, and this one never seemed to tilt in their favor. [Read more 🡒]
Caleb Wilson Is Finally Back And Tar Heels Fans Need This
Caleb Wilsons return to the floor is finally here, and it comes with the kind of low-stakes, high-curiosity setting that makes Summer League so useful for a team like Chicago. The No. 4 pick is scheduled to play Friday night against Memphis, giving Bulls fans their first real look at him in a game setting since his North Carolina season was cut short by injuries.
For Tar Heels fans, it is a chance to watch one of their most talented recent players move into the next stage after a frustrating finish in Chapel Hill. The matchup will be on Prime Video at 7 p.m. ET, and while the result matters less than Wilson simply getting back on the court, there is plenty of interest in seeing how he looks in his first competitive action in a while. [Read more 🡒]
Tar Heels Fans Finally Get The Caleb Wilson Moment They've Waited For
Tar Heels fans have had a busy Summer League to track, with familiar names popping up across the NBA as former North Carolina players settle into their pro routines. Henri Veesaar gave Atlanta a lift off the bench with 14 points and six rebounds in a win over San Antonio, while R.J. Davis chipped in 12 points, three assists and two steals for the Spurs, even if the box score also reflected a rough night overall for his team.
The bigger anticipation, though, is centered on Caleb Wilson, who is finally on the verge of getting back on the floor after a long layoff. Seth Trimble also made his Summer League debut for Washington, adding another Tar Heel to the leagues summer showcase, and with more UNC alumni still working through their own opportunities, this stretch has become a useful early look at how the programs recent talent is beginning to spread across the NBA. [Read more 🡒]