After a $14 million offseason overhaul, expectations around North Carolina were sky-high. On paper, this roster looked like it had everything-size, talent, depth, and experience.
But once ACC play began, the Tar Heels didn’t look bulletproof. In fact, they looked vulnerable.
A 2-3 start in conference play, coupled with disappointing losses out west to Stanford and Cal, forced head coach Hubert Davis to hit the reset button.
Last Saturday marked the first major shakeup. Davis sent Colorado State transfer Kyan Evans to the bench, limiting the point guard to just 10 minutes in an 84-78 loss to Cal.
Then came another change on Wednesday: Jaydon Young replaced Jarin Stevenson in the starting five. The new lineup-Derek Dixon, Seth Trimble, Young, Caleb Wilson, and Henri Veesaar-responded with a resounding 91-69 win over Notre Dame.
It was the kind of performance that suggested Davis might have found the right mix. But the real test comes this Saturday in Charlottesville, where No.
14 Virginia and its high-powered offense await.
First-year head coach Ryan Odom has quickly turned Virginia into one of the most efficient offensive teams in the country. His system is built to stretch defenses, and that’s exactly where UNC has struggled the most-defending the three-point line.
**UNC’s Interior Defense Is Elite. The Perimeter?
Not So Much. **
Let’s start with what’s working. With Caleb Wilson and Henri Veesaar anchoring the paint, opponents are shooting just 43.2 percent against the Tar Heels-fourth-best in the nation.
That’s elite rim protection. But beyond the arc, it’s been a different story.
Overall, opponents are hitting 33.8 percent of their threes against UNC. But in ACC play, that number has ballooned to a staggering 44.9 percent.
That’s not just a red flag-it’s a siren.
That perimeter vulnerability is exactly what Odom’s Cavaliers are built to exploit. Virginia is shooting 37.1 percent from deep as a team, and six of their nine regular rotation players are hitting better than 35 percent from beyond the arc.
That includes 6-foot-9 forward Thijs De Ridder, who’s not only a threat inside but also capable of dragging UNC’s bigs out to the perimeter. That’s a matchup nightmare for a team already trying to find its defensive identity.
Why Davis Made the Switch
The old starting five had too many defensive liabilities on the perimeter. With Wilson, Veesaar, and Stevenson all on the floor, UNC had size but lacked lateral quickness.
That made it tough to close out on shooters and rotate effectively when teams moved the ball. And at the point of attack, Evans was struggling to stay in front of opposing guards, which opened up driving lanes and led to kick-out threes.
Enter Derek Dixon. At 6-foot-5, he brings more size and physicality to the point guard spot, giving UNC better resistance against dribble penetration.
Swapping Stevenson for Young adds more agility and switchability on the wing-key traits for defending teams with multiple shooters. The idea is to stay in front of the ball, contest shots more effectively, and limit the kind of open looks that have been killing them in league play.
Against Notre Dame, the early returns were promising. The Irish, who rank 103rd in adjusted offensive efficiency, managed just 32 percent from three (8-for-25). That’s still not great, but it’s a step in the right direction.
Now Comes the Real Test
Saturday’s game at Virginia will tell us a lot. The Cavaliers aren’t just another ACC team-they’re a top-20 offense with a system designed to expose exactly the kind of defensive issues UNC has been trying to fix.
If the new-look Tar Heels can hold their own against Virginia’s shooters, it’ll be a strong sign that Davis’s adjustments are working. If not, it may be back to the drawing board.
This is a pivotal moment for North Carolina’s season. The talent is there.
The investment has been made. Now it’s about whether the pieces can come together in time to make a real run in the ACC.
Hubert Davis has made bold moves. Saturday will show us if they’re the right ones.