As North Carolina tips off ACC play Tuesday night against Florida State at the Dean Dome, the Tar Heels find themselves in a strong position to open conference action with a win. Florida State has struggled mightily this season, particularly against Power 4 competition, and their résumé includes losses to Dayton and UMass - not exactly the kind of momentum you want heading into Chapel Hill. Meanwhile, UNC has dropped just one game all season and is trending upward, especially with the return of Seth Trimble providing a boost to the backcourt.
But if there’s one thing that’s true about ACC basketball, it’s that no game is ever a gimme. Conference play has a way of testing teams in ways that go beyond the scouting report. Let’s take a closer look at three key factors that could shape Tuesday night’s matchup.
1. Fixing the Offensive Rebounding Leak
For a team with UNC’s size and athleticism, the recent rebounding numbers have been puzzling - and, frankly, a bit concerning. In each of the last two games, the Tar Heels have allowed opponents to grab double-digit offensive rebounds.
The low point came against East Carolina, when the Pirates pulled down 20 offensive boards and nearly matched UNC on the glass overall. The Heels still came away with the win, but that kind of effort on the defensive glass won’t hold up in tighter games down the stretch.
Rebounding, especially on the defensive end, is often less about schemes and more about effort. Hubert Davis knows it.
Roy Williams preached it for years. Box out, fight for position, and finish possessions.
That’s the formula. The Heels have the physical tools to dominate the glass, but it has to show up in the hustle plays.
Against Florida State, UNC should have the edge in rebounding - but if they allow the Seminoles to extend possessions, it could keep the game closer than it needs to be.
2. Kyan Evans’ Adjustment Curve
There’s been a lot of conversation around freshman point guard Kyan Evans and his ongoing adjustment to the Tar Heels’ system. At Colorado State, Evans thrived in a more free-flowing offense - one that emphasized read-and-react decision-making.
At UNC, the structure is tighter, the sets more defined, and the expectations clearer. That kind of shift can take time, especially for a young guard trying to find his rhythm.
So far, Evans hasn’t quite hit his stride, particularly when it comes to scoring consistently. But the encouraging part for UNC fans is that the team hasn’t needed him to be perfect.
The return of Seth Trimble has added some flexibility, and while Trimble isn’t a pure point guard, he brings enough stability to let Evans play off the ball more if needed. That could be the key to unlocking his confidence.
Tuesday night could be an opportunity for Evans to take a step forward - not necessarily a breakout performance, but a sign that he’s trending in the right direction. He’s the only starter who’s struggled to consistently reach double figures, and if he can start contributing more offensively, it would raise the ceiling for this team in a big way.
3. Containing the Frontcourt Duo of Wilson and Veesaar
So far this season, few teams have had any luck slowing down Caleb Wilson and Henri Veesaar. Whether it’s man-to-man, zone, or sending extra help, the results have been the same - both players continue to produce at a high level. Wilson has scored fewer than 15 points just once this season, and Veesaar has been equally tough to handle, especially with his ability to stretch the floor.
Veesaar’s recent shooting has added a new wrinkle to UNC’s offense. He’s knocking down threes with confidence, forcing defenses to respect him beyond the arc.
That opens up the paint for Wilson, who thrives in space and doesn’t need much of an invitation to go to work inside. If Florida State tries to pack the paint and make UNC beat them from the outside, Veesaar’s ability to pick-and-pop could be a major problem.
And if they extend out to cover him, Wilson will have room to operate underneath.
It’s a brutal matchup for the Seminoles. If they can’t find a way to slow down the Wilson-Veesaar combo, it’s going to be a long night.
Their best bet might be to mix up looks, try to disrupt rhythm, and hope UNC has an off shooting night. But based on what we’ve seen so far, stopping this frontcourt tandem is easier said than done.
Bottom Line: North Carolina enters Tuesday night with momentum, depth, and a clear talent advantage. But ACC play doesn’t hand out wins on paper.
If the Heels want to start 1-0 in the conference, they’ll need to clean up the rebounding, get solid minutes from their point guards, and continue riding the dominant play of Wilson and Veesaar. Florida State may be overmatched, but no one in Chapel Hill is taking this one lightly - nor should they.