UNC Basketball Climbs in Polls, Slips in NET: A Tale of Two Rankings
The Tar Heels are heating up-and the national coaches are noticing. UNC, sitting at 9-1, has climbed to No. 13 in the latest USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll, continuing a steady rise that began when the season tipped off. But while the wins keep stacking up, the NCAA’s NET rankings tell a slightly different story, with the Heels slipping to No. 20 after their latest outing.
Let’s unpack what’s going on with this UNC team that’s showing promise in the polls but still has work to do in the metrics.
Polls Like What They See
UNC moved up two spots in the coaches poll after an 18-point win over USC Upstate. That win might not have turned many heads on its own, but it kept momentum rolling through exam week and extended the Heels’ win streak to six. The AP voters are on board, too-UNC jumped to No. 12 in the AP Top 25, a significant climb from their preseason No. 25 slot.
Within the ACC, UNC is in good company. No.
3 Duke remains unbeaten, while Louisville (No. 11) and Virginia (No. 22) are also making noise nationally. But the Tar Heels are right in the mix, looking like a team that’s starting to find its identity.
The NET Ranking Tells a Different Story
Despite the strong record and poll movement, UNC’s NET ranking dropped from the top 15 to No. 20 after the USC Upstate win. Why? Because in the eyes of the NET, not all wins are created equal.
The NCAA Evaluation Tool, or NET, breaks games into four quadrants based on opponent strength and game location. That USC Upstate win?
It came against a Quadrant 4 opponent. And even though UNC won by 18, it wasn’t enough to impress the algorithm.
The NET tends to reward high-quality wins and penalize teams for underwhelming performances against lower-tier teams-even in victory.
Through 10 games, UNC is 2-1 in Quadrant 1 games, with marquee wins over Kansas at home and Kentucky on the road. Their only Q1 loss came at a neutral site against Michigan State.
Outside of that, they’re a perfect 7-0 in Quadrants 2 through 4. So the résumé is solid, but there’s room to climb with tougher competition ahead.
Two Key Games on Deck
The good news for the Tar Heels? They’ve got two chances this week to boost their NET profile.
First up is East Tennessee State (8-3), visiting the Dean Smith Center on Tuesday night. That matchup likely won’t move the needle much unless UNC dominates from start to finish.
But Saturday’s showdown against Ohio State (8-2) at the CBS Sports Classic in Atlanta? That’s a big one.
A win there would give UNC another Quadrant 1 victory and a chance to climb back into the top 15 of the NET.
Frontcourt Doing the Heavy Lifting
UNC’s interior duo has been the engine behind this 9-1 start. Freshman forward Caleb Wilson is already putting up grown-man numbers-19.4 points and 10.6 rebounds per game-and looks every bit like a future star.
Junior center Henri Veesaar is right there with him, averaging 16 points and 9.2 boards. Together, they’ve created one of the most productive frontcourts in the country.
With senior guard Seth Trimble sidelined due to injury, the Tar Heels have leaned on international prospect Luka Bogavac to carry the perimeter scoring load. Bogavac has stepped up, averaging 12.5 points per game and providing a steady outside presence.
There’s even more good news: Trimble is no longer wearing a brace and is expected to return to full-contact practice soon. If he can get back to form, UNC’s backcourt depth could take a major step forward.
How the Analytics See It
While the coaches and AP voters are clearly impressed, the advanced analytics are a bit more reserved. Here’s where UNC stands across several respected metrics as of December 15:
- KenPom: No. 27
- EvanMiya: No. 24
- Bart Torvik (T-Rank): No. 24
- Haslametrics: No. 25
These rankings suggest that while UNC is winning games, they’re not yet dominating in a way that jumps off the page analytically. Still, the team is trending in the right direction-and with a big week ahead, they’ve got an opportunity to shift that narrative.
Bottom Line
UNC is doing what good teams do in December: winning games, building chemistry, and climbing the rankings. The NET drop is a reminder that style points matter in today’s college basketball landscape, but it’s also an opportunity. With Ohio State looming and conference play around the corner, the Tar Heels have every chance to prove they’re more than just poll darlings-they’re a team built to contend deep into March.