Tar Heels Return to ACC Action vs. Florida State: What to Watch from Chapel Hill
After an eight-day breather, the 12th-ranked North Carolina Tar Heels are back in action Tuesday night, opening ACC play at home against Florida State (7 p.m. ET, ESPN2). With the Smith Center crowd behind them and momentum from a 12-1 start, UNC is looking to pick up where it left off - and keep building on what’s already their best start since that 2008-09 national title season.
Hubert Davis, now in his fifth year at the helm, has guided the Heels to a 3-1 record in ACC openers. And if his energy is any indication, his squad is ready to hit the ground running.
“I’m juiced up, so they better be juiced up too,” Davis said with a grin during his pregame press conference. “Sometimes the best thing you can do is take a step back, breathe, and come back refreshed. That’s what this group needed.”
UNC’s Frontcourt Powerhouse
The Tar Heels have been dominant through their non-conference slate, and much of that success starts in the paint. Caleb Wilson and Henri Veesaar have been a force down low - Wilson is averaging 19.6 points and 10.8 rebounds per game, while Veesaar isn’t far behind at 16.8 points and 9.2 boards. That kind of production from the frontcourt has made UNC a matchup nightmare, especially when both are clicking.
Add in senior guard Seth Trimble, who’s back in the lineup and providing 14.5 points and 4 rebounds per game, and you’ve got a team that’s not just talented - they’re experienced and balanced.
Florida State Brings Pace - and a Playmaker
Don’t let the 7-6 record fool you - Florida State likes to play fast and can score in bunches. First-year head coach Luke Loucks has brought in a new energy, and senior guard Robert McCray V is at the heart of it.
The Jacksonville transfer leads the ACC in assists per game (7.1) and is eighth nationally in that category. He’s also chipping in 13.5 points per night.
McCray’s ability to push the tempo and find shooters makes this Seminoles team dangerous, even if they’ve struggled with consistency. They’re averaging 85 points per game, but they’re also giving up over 78 - a stat that plays into UNC’s hands if the Heels can control the pace and capitalize on defensive lapses.
Recent History Favors the Heels
UNC has won six straight against Florida State, and the Seminoles haven’t left Chapel Hill with a win since 2010. The Smith Center has been a fortress, and with the Heels riding a wave of confidence, that trend could very well continue.
Injury Report: Heels Looking Healthy
Two hours before tip, UNC’s injury report was clean - no Tar Heels listed. That’s good news as they enter the grind of conference play.
Starting guard Luka Bogavac, who had been listed as probable with an undisclosed injury, is expected to be available. Sophomore center James Brown and freshman guard Isaiah Denis were also on the availability report but look set to dress.
Florida State will be without freshman guard Xavier Osceola, who has yet to make his debut this season.
Projected Starters
North Carolina:
- Kyan Evans (5.8 ppg, 3.8 apg)
- Seth Trimble (14.5 ppg, 4 rpg)
- Luka Bogavac (11.1 ppg, 3 rpg)
- Caleb Wilson (19.6 ppg, 10.8 rpg)
- Henri Veesaar (16.8 ppg, 9.2 rpg)
Florida State:
- Robert McCray V (13.5 ppg, 7.1 apg)
- Martin Somerville (9.7 ppg, 3.2 rpg)
- Chauncey Wiggins (12 ppg, 4.3 rpg)
- Lajae Jones (11.7 ppg, 4.6 rpg)
- Alex Steen (7.3 ppg, 6.7 rpg)
Stat Breakdown
UNC has been efficient on both ends of the floor. They're averaging 81.4 points per game while holding opponents to just 63.5. Shooting 47.5% from the field and 33.6% from deep, the Heels have found a rhythm offensively - and their KenPom ranking of 22 reflects that.
Florida State, meanwhile, is putting up points (85 per game) but giving up nearly as many (78.3). Their shooting splits - 42.2% from the field and 31.4% from three - suggest they’re relying on volume rather than efficiency. That could be a problem against a UNC team that’s been locked in defensively.
Prediction
There’s always an element of unpredictability when ACC play begins - but on paper, this one tilts heavily in UNC’s favor. Florida State’s up-tempo style could play right into the Tar Heels’ hands, especially if Wilson and Veesaar control the paint early.
Expect UNC to come out energized after the break, set the tone with their defense, and lean on their frontcourt to create separation. If Trimble and Bogavac contribute on the perimeter, this could turn into a statement win to open conference play.
Up Next for the Tar Heels
After Florida State, UNC heads to SMU on January 3, then returns home for a key matchup with Wake Forest on January 10. The grind of ACC play is here - and if this team keeps trending the way it has through 13 games, they’re going to be a tough out for anyone in the league.