North Carolina and N.C. State found themselves in a near swap in the NET rankings following the Wolfpack's decisive 82-58 victory over the Tar Heels on Tuesday night.
The No. 16 Tar Heels, dealing with a short-handed roster, dropped from 25 to 28 in the NET. Meanwhile, the Wolfpack climbed from 29 to 25, matching their season-high and improving to 4-6 in Quad 1 games.
UNC, now 5-6 in Quad 1 matchups, also saw a dip in KenPom (from 28 to 34) and Torvick (from 25 to 32). Based on the NET ranking, they would currently sit as a No. 7 seed.
However, the NCAA tournament committee considers multiple factors beyond the NET when determining seedings. These rankings will continue to fluctuate, and only the opponent's standing on Selection Sunday will ultimately matter.
If Caleb Wilson and Henri Veesaar return before Selection Sunday, the committee might consider any losses, like the recent one at N.C. State, that occurred in their absence.
The Tar Heels are unlikely to find themselves on the bubble like last season when they struggled with a 1-12 record in Quad 1 games.
NCAA Quadrant System Breakdown:
- Quadrant 1 (UNC is 5-6; 3 games left): Home games vs. teams with a NET of 30 or better, neutral-site games vs. teams ranked 50 or better, road games vs. teams ranked 75 or better.
- Quadrant 2 (UNC is 2-0; 2 games left): Home 31-75, neutral 51-100, road 76-135.
- Quadrant 3 (UNC is 8-0; no games left): Home 76-160, neutral 101-200, road 135-240.
- Quadrant 4 (UNC is 5-0; no games left): Home 161 or lower, neutral 201 or lower, road 241 or lower.
Despite Syracuse's (15-12, 6-8) position tied for 11th in the ACC, Carolina's upcoming road game against the Orange (NET ranking of 72) marks the first of three remaining Quad 1 regular-season games for UNC.
Following that, they face another Quad 1 challenge with No. 21 Louisville (19-7, 8-5; NET ranking of 15) visiting the Smith Center on Monday night.
UNC will wrap up the regular season with two Quad 2 home games against Virginia Tech (17-10, 6-8; NET ranking of 56) and Clemson (20-6, 10-3; NET ranking of 31), before a significant showdown at No. 3 Duke.
The Clemson game could potentially shift to Quad 1 status if the Tigers improve their NET ranking to 30, with games against Wake Forest, Florida State, and Louisville on their schedule before facing the Tar Heels.
According to a consensus of 124 projections on Bracket Matrix, the Tar Heels are currently the second-highest No. 6 seed.
In ESPN’s Joe Lunardi’s bracket, UNC is slotted as a No. 6 seed in the East Regional, with first- and second-round games scheduled in Tampa, Florida.
The Athletic’s Joe Rexrode also projects Carolina as a No. 6 seed in the East Regional, but with games in San Diego. Both projections have Duke as the No. 1 seed in the East.
UNC’s NCAA Résumé:
- NET ranking: 25
- High NET: 13 (2 days)
- Low NET: 30 (4 days)
- Average opponent NET: 107
- Average NET win: 127
- Average NET loss: 40
- NET strength of schedule: 54
- KenPom: 34
- ESPN’s BPI: 36
- Bart Torvick T-Rank: 32
Recent Results and Upcoming Games:
Tuesday's results saw N.C. State overpower No.
16 North Carolina, while Florida State, SMU, and Miami secured wins over Boston College, No. 21 Louisville, and Virginia Tech, respectively.
Looking ahead, UNC will face Syracuse on Saturday, followed by a home game against Louisville on Monday. The Tar Heels' schedule remains challenging as they aim to solidify their tournament position.