Phil Steele and Bill Connelly both see UNC football as an average team heading into 2026, and that’s where the trouble starts.
Steele slotted the Tar Heels at No. 60 in his preseason rankings, while Connelly put them at No. 57.
In the ACC, Steele has 12 teams ahead of UNC and only Syracuse, Stanford, Cal and Boston College behind them. Connelly is just as blunt, with UNC sitting 13th in the league and Cal one spot above the Heels at 56.
That middle-of-the-pack national view matters because UNC’s schedule doesn’t offer much breathing room. The Tar Heels are nearly $100 million into the Bill Belichick experiment and hoping to scrape together six or seven wins, but the projections suggest a much harder road than last season. By the rankings from Steele and Connelly, nine of UNC’s opponents are rated higher than the Heels, with only two ranked lower.
Here’s how those opponents stack up:
TCU is ranked 37 by Steele and 34 by Connelly. Clemson comes in at 24 and 23.
Notre Dame is No. 1 and No. 3.
Pitt lands at 28 and 41. Duke is 53 and 44.
Syracuse is 67 and 69. Miami is 9 and 8.
UConn is 128 and 107. Louisville is 36 and 27.
Virginia is 39 and 40. NC State checks in at 52 and 47.
Last year, TCU was UNC’s toughest opponent by all three major metrics - FEI, FPI and SP+ - and the Horned Frogs finished 32 in the first two and 37 in the third. This season, TCU is projected to be around the 30s again, but on paper it would rank only as UNC’s fifth- or sixth-toughest game.
That leaves the Tar Heels with a schedule that can be broken into a few clear tiers.
Notre Dame and Miami fall into the “Nope” Tier. The idea here is simple: even if those teams handed UNC extra possessions with mistakes, they’d still be expected to leave Kenan Stadium with ease. The source’s verdict is plain - an upset over either would be the upset of the year.
Then comes the “Puncher’s Chance” Tier: TCU, Clemson, Pitt, Louisville and Virginia. These are the games most likely to define UNC’s season and maybe even Belichick’s future.
Four of those teams are expected to start new quarterbacks, and two have new offensive coordinators. TCU is installing an offense that depends on sharp execution.
Clemson, after entering last season with national title expectations, stumbled to 7-6. Pitt is counting on Mason Heinthezel to build on his freshman flashes and avoid a sophomore slump.
Louisville can be volatile from week to week. Virginia is trying to stack another portal-built success story, which can be a risky way to live.
If UNC drops all five, the Heels would need to sweep the next two tiers just to get to 5-7. The math in the source is clear: they need at least two wins from this group to keep a winning season alive.
The next cluster is the “Coin Flip” Tier, made up of Duke, Syracuse and NC State. These are the kind of games that can swing on turnover luck, injuries or a call here and there.
Duke and NC State lost important pieces through the transfer portal. Syracuse is hoping Steve Angeli is fully past the Achilles injury that derailed the Orange last season.
NC State is waiting to see whether CJ Daniels can be the kind of player who carries a team. Duke, meanwhile, has to replace its quarterback and top receiver, both of whom left for Miami on the final day of the transfer portal.
UNC being in the same neighborhood as those three teams in year two of Belichick is, as the source puts it, “an indictment.” To have any shot at a winning record, the Heels would need to win all three.
The final group is the “Just Fire Him Now” Tier: ETSU and UConn. Those are supposed to be wins, even if UNC plays poorly.
ETSU is projected as an average FCS team, while UConn lost all of its coaches and best players from last season’s 9-4 team that beat Duke. Losing either one would be a disaster and, according to the source, likely the end of the Belichick experiment.
Put the probabilities together and UNC lands at 4.5 wins, which happens to match the wins total offered by the sportsbooks.
There is one caveat: national rankings can blur the differences between teams in the middle. The gap between Oregon at No. 2 and Pitt at No. 28 or 41 is far bigger than the gap between Pitt and UNC at No. 60 or 57.
Teams ranked from roughly 40 to 80 tend to blend together. That’s where coaching is supposed to matter.
For UNC in 2026, that’s the whole bet.
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