With the final stretch of the college basketball regular season upon us, the countdown to Selection Sunday is officially on. We're just seven Sundays away from the 2026 NCAA Tournament field being revealed, and that means bracket projections are heating up across the board. For North Carolina, the picture is starting to take shape-and it’s a promising one.
The Tar Heels are wrapping up their last breather in the schedule, enjoying a rare week without a midweek game. But starting this Saturday, it’s go time.
UNC will play 11 games over the next five and a half weeks, many of them against high-quality opponents that fall into the all-important Quadrant 1 and 2 categories. That means opportunity-plenty of it-to climb the seed line and solidify their place in March Madness.
So where do things stand right now? Let’s take a look at how the major bracketologists see UNC’s tournament outlook heading into the final push.
ESPN (Joe Lunardi)
Joe Lunardi, the face of bracketology for many fans, currently has North Carolina slotted as a No. 6 seed in the Midwest Region.
Their projected first-round opponent? An undefeated Miami (OH) squad that’s been turning heads as a mid-major contender.
If that matchup holds, UNC would open play in Greenville, a site that holds some good memories for the Tar Heels-they started their 2017 national championship run there. The top seed in that region, per Lunardi, is Michigan, a team many consider the top dog in the nation right now.
That’s a tough road, but also a familiar one. Carolina’s been here before.
Fox Sports (Mike DeCourcy)
Mike DeCourcy, another respected voice in the bracket world, sees things a bit differently. He has UNC as a No. 4 seed in the West Region, facing North Dakota State in the opening round.
That seeding would give Carolina a slightly more favorable path, at least early on. Arizona is DeCourcy’s top seed in the West, and a potential second-round matchup with Arkansas looms. While that region is no cakewalk, the No. 4 line is a clear step up from the 6-seed projections elsewhere-and a sign that UNC’s recent momentum is being recognized.
CBS Sports (Jerry Palm)
Jerry Palm has the most recent update among the big names, and like Lunardi, he’s got the Tar Heels on the No. 6 line, but this time in the East Region.
Their projected opponent? Tulsa.
What makes Palm’s bracket particularly intriguing is the potential for a high-stakes showdown with Duke, who he has as the No. 1 seed in that same region. That sets the stage for a possible Elite Eight clash between the ACC’s fiercest rivals. Of course, both teams would need to navigate a couple of tough games to get there-but the possibility is enough to get fans buzzing.
Field of 68
The Field of 68, a group that’s carved out a strong niche in the college hoops space, currently projects UNC as a No. 5 seed in the West Region, with a first-round matchup against Stephen F. Austin.
That’s the kind of pairing that raises eyebrows-SFA has a history of playing spoiler in March, and they’re the type of mid-major that thrives on the underdog role. But for Carolina, it’s another signal that they’re firmly in the mix, with a chance to move up if they take care of business down the stretch.
Where Things Stand
No matter which bracket you look at, one thing is clear: North Carolina is safely in the field, and they’ve got room to rise.
Just a week ago, most projections had the Tar Heels hovering around the 7 line, with some even dropping them into the 8/9 territory. But a big road win at Virginia has shifted the narrative-and the numbers.
With 11 games left and a few resume-boosting opportunities still ahead, UNC has a real shot to improve its seed. A run through the ACC schedule-and potentially the conference tournament-could even push them as high as a No. 2 seed, which would be their best position since 2024, when they entered the Big Dance as a top seed.
The road ahead is tough, but the opportunity is real. And if Carolina can keep stacking wins, they won’t just be dancing in March-they’ll be doing it with a prime spot on the bracket.