The coaching carousel at the University of North Carolina is spinning with intensity as speculation swirls around who will step into the shoes of former head coach Hubert Davis. Following UNC's early exit from the NCAA Tournament, the rumor mill has been in overdrive, with prediction markets buzzing even before the official announcement of Davis's departure.
Kalshi, a prediction market platform, jumped the gun by listing odds for the next Tar Heels head coach as early as 1 a.m. ET on March 23. This was a full four days after UNC's unexpected loss to VCU, but before the coaching change was public knowledge.
Initially, Chicago Bulls coach Billy Donovan and University of Arizona's Tommy Lloyd emerged as the front-runners. Donovan quickly became a near 50-50 favorite by Tuesday. However, as the official news broke, Donovan’s odds settled to around 22 percent, while Lloyd was at 13 percent.
Since then, the market has been anything but stable. Lloyd took the lead on Wednesday, only for Donovan to reclaim it by Thursday morning.
Donovan, focusing on his current NBA duties, remains the favorite with a 30 percent chance, while Lloyd trails closely at 25 percent. Vanderbilt’s Mark Byington is the next contender at 10 percent, followed by Iowa State’s T.J.
Otzelberger (8 percent), Alabama’s Nate Oats (7 percent), and Michigan’s Dusty May and Iowa’s Ben McCollum, both at 5 percent. Other names like Texas Tech’s Grant McCasland and Gonzaga’s Mark Few hover below 3 percent.
Brendan Marks from The Athletic weighed in, highlighting why Donovan and Lloyd are leading the pack. “UNC doesn’t have a single top candidate, but Donovan and Lloyd are definitely in the elite group,” Marks noted. “Lloyd’s credentials and ties to Mark Few are appealing to UNC supporters, while Donovan’s NBA experience could boost recruiting and performance.”
Prediction markets like Kalshi thrive on these speculative topics, unlike traditional sportsbooks that shy away due to the potential for insider information. These markets might not always predict outcomes accurately, but they do capture public sentiment and speculation.
Hypothetical odds provided by Borgata’s sportsbook director, Thomas Gable, have Donovan at +165 and Lloyd at +200, with others like T.J. Otzelberger and Brad Stevens also in the mix. Gable mentioned Donovan’s potential return to college basketball, given the Bulls' current struggles.
Doug Kezirian, a betting analyst, echoed the sentiment that Donovan is the rightful favorite, but suggested long-shot bets on Ben McCollum and Scott Drew as intriguing options.
As the situation develops, all eyes will be on Chapel Hill to see who will take the helm of this storied basketball program. One thing's for sure: the speculation is far from over.