ACC talkin’ season is in full swing, and North Carolina is already getting shoved toward the bottom of the pile.
After last week’s ACC media event, the predictions started flying, and the Tar Heels have become an easy target in the early chatter. USA Today pegged UNC to finish 14th in the league. Around the preseason guesswork for head coach, likely starting quarterback and projected finish, the Tar Heels keep landing somewhere in the conference’s bottom five.
David Hale pushed the conversation even further on his Substack, where he slotted North Carolina into Tier 8 and put the Tar Heels at No. 17 in the ACC, just ahead of Boston College.
“BC’s roster just looks pretty bleak. And UNC… I think if Travis Burgess can win the QB job and develop quickly under Bobby Petrino, there’s a shot. But if Billy Edwards is your QB with the rest of that roster and the schedule they have this year… I can see it getting very bad, very quickly.”
That’s as blunt a warning as you’ll hear in July, and it leaves UNC sitting at the very bottom of Hale’s conference forecast.
The computer models aren’t doing the Tar Heels many favors either. One projection has the defense finishing 36th by season’s end. Another, from a model with similar credibility, sees UNC as one of the worst teams among the Power 4, landing at 93rd.
So the range of opinion is wide, and that’s where North Carolina sits right now: somewhere between hope and dread, depending on who’s doing the talking. Some people are choosing not to think about it at all.
Others are lining up best-case scenarios. The pessimists are already bracing for the worst.
The realists are parked in the middle.
After last season’s mess, most Tar Heel fans are in “show me” mode. For now, all anyone has is a set of feelings and a long wait until the opener in Dublin.
There’s a version of this season where UNC shows up against TCU looking much better than expected, just as it looked much worse than expected a year ago. There’s another where a young but improved team still can’t get to 6-6 against a tougher schedule.
And there’s the nightmare version, the one where everything unravels.
Right now, that last one is the one some people are talking about most.
In Other News...
UNC May Regret Losing The Triangle Player It Needed Most
The Triangles latest transfer-portal churn has left all three local power programs staring at different kinds of holes, and North Carolinas loss may be the one that stings most in the long run. Duke is trying to replace a quarterback who carried its offense, while NC State has to rethink its backfield after losing a productive runner, but the Tar Heels are the ones watching a key defensive piece head elsewhere after Khmori House decided to move on to the SEC.
House gave North Carolina a presence in the middle of the defense and was one of the more important in-state names to come through the portal cycle, which makes his departure more than just another roster change. For a program trying to build toward a better 2026 outlook, losing a linebacker like that is the kind of setback that can linger, especially when the rest of the Triangle is dealing with its own portal damage and every edge in the region feels hard-earned. [Read more 🡒]
UNC Faced A Painful Truth Before Moving On From Hubert Davis
North Carolinas move on from Hubert Davis came after a season that never matched the talent in the room, ending with a first-round NCAA Tournament loss and a hard reset for a program that expects to live much deeper into March. Athletic director Steve Newmark made clear the decision was rooted in coaching performance, not a shortage of ability on the roster, a distinction that matters at a place where expectations are never subtle.
Michael Malone has since taken over and quickly put his stamp on the job, rebuilding both the roster and the staff around him. The early work has already changed the feel of the program, and it also hints at how aggressively UNC wanted to move after deciding the old formula was no longer enough. [Read more 🡒]
Two Returning Tar Heels Could Be UNC's 2026 Offensive Answer
A pair of returning playmakers could end up shaping North Carolinas offense in 2026, and both already showed enough last season to suggest the ceiling is real. Wide receiver Shipp proved he can be a reliable target even in a tough passing environment, while running back June gave the Tar Heels a steady ground option and flashed enough to make him part of the conversation as the offense looks ahead.
The bigger question is how much more each can do with better support around them. Shipp stands to benefit from an upgraded quarterback room, and June appears positioned for a larger share of the workload after the backfield changes already in motion. If both take the next step, UNC could have two of its clearest offensive answers waiting in-house. [Read more 🡒]