Drake Maye vs. Matthew Stafford: MVP Finalists with Different Roads to Glory
As the NFL MVP race barrels toward the finish line, two quarterbacks have emerged as finalists: New England’s Drake Maye and Los Angeles’ Matthew Stafford. Both have made compelling cases, but only one will walk away with the league’s most prestigious individual honor.
Right now, Stafford appears to hold the edge in the official MVP conversation. He was named the Associated Press First-Team All-Pro quarterback-a strong indicator of how voters are leaning. But if you dig a little deeper, the story gets more interesting.
ESPN’s Seth Walder put together a comprehensive ranking of the top 100 players in the league, using a mix of advanced metrics, traditional stats, and input from NFL insiders. His goal?
To identify the most valuable players, not just the most decorated. And at the top of that list?
Not Stafford. Not Dak Prescott, who came in second.
It was Drake Maye.
That’s right-Maye, the rookie quarterback leading the Patriots, topped Walder’s rankings thanks to a season filled with precision, poise, and explosive playmaking.
What Set Maye Apart
Maye didn’t just impress-he led the entire NFL in QBR with a 77.2, comfortably ahead of Jordan Love’s 72.9. That’s not a small margin, and it’s even more impressive when you consider that QBR adjusts for opponent strength. So yes, the Patriots had a lighter schedule, but Maye’s performance still stands out when you control for that.
His accuracy was elite. Maye led all QBR-qualifying quarterbacks in:
- Yards per dropback (7.7)
- Adjusted completion percentage (78.8%)
- Completion percentage over expectation (CPOE) at +9%
That last number is especially eye-popping-it’s the best CPOE season on record since the NFL Next Gen Stats era began in 2016. Translation: Maye wasn’t just making the throws he should make-he was completing passes most quarterbacks simply don’t.
He also brought the fireworks. Maye had 54 plays that generated at least two expected points added (EPA), tied for second-most in the league.
He averaged 8.7 air yards per attempt (third-highest) and targeted the sticks or beyond on 47% of his throws (fourth-highest). This wasn’t a dink-and-dunk operation-Maye was pushing the ball downfield and doing it with surgical precision.
The Stafford Factor
Now, let’s be clear-Matthew Stafford had a phenomenal year. He’s been the steady hand guiding a Rams offense loaded with firepower. Throwing to All-Pro receivers Puka Nacua and Davante Adams, with Kyren Williams in the backfield, Stafford had the tools to make magic-and he did.
But when it comes to raw efficiency and value over average at the position, Maye edged him out in several key categories. Walder pointed to Stafford’s accuracy metrics lagging behind Maye’s and Prescott’s, which ultimately placed him third in the rankings.
And context matters. Maye didn’t have the same level of offensive weaponry.
The Patriots have talent, no doubt-but they’re not rolling out two All-Pro wideouts and a Pro Bowl running back. Maye was doing more with less, and that’s part of what made his season so special.
MVP or Not, the Bigger Prize Awaits
Despite Walder’s rankings, all signs point to Stafford taking home the official MVP trophy when it’s announced on February 5. Maye is likely to finish as the runner-up. But here’s the twist-these two might not be done facing off just yet.
There’s a real possibility they’ll meet again on the biggest stage of all: the Super Bowl. And while MVP honors are nice, both quarterbacks would gladly trade individual accolades for a shot at the Lombardi Trophy.
In the end, this MVP race tells us something bigger than who takes home hardware. It’s a snapshot of two quarterbacks at different points in their careers-Stafford, the seasoned veteran still playing elite football, and Maye, the rookie phenom already pushing the boundaries of what’s possible. One might win the award, but both are redefining what value looks like at the quarterback position.